Why Texans won’t move Deshaun Watson to SF 49ers this offseason

There’s a good deal of speculation Deshaun Watson wants out from the Texans, yet they’ll be reluctant to move him to the SF 49ers.

Would it be nice if the SF 49ers could somehow engineer a trade for disgruntled Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson?

Yes, that would be a game-changer. Hall of Famer Michael Irvin even told 95.7 The Game the Niners would “go to Super Bowls each and every year.”

Watson’s situation in Houston has grown stickier seemingly with each passing day. He was reportedly upset with the team’s direction and his lack of input in the Texans’ decision to hire former New England Patriots staffer Nick Caserio as general manager. And some former Texans players weighed in on Watson’s future, not exactly shedding a positive light on his situation:

So, naturally, a potential offseason Watson-to-San Francisco offseason blockbuster has become part of the rumor mill and speculation hope within the fanbase.

It’s likely that’s where it stays.

SF 49ers probably won’t land Deshaun Watson

For starters, at least according to Odds Shark, the SF 49ers have the seventh-best odds to land Watson this offseason at plus-2000:

Odds Shark’s top destination remains Houston, which is understandable. And that alone is the biggest reason why the Niners likely aren’t going to be in any serious running. The Texans have the three-time Pro Bowler under contract through 2025, and it would cost Houston over $5.66 million in negative cap savings with $21.6 million in dead money if he was to be traded before June 1, per Over the Cap.

While Watson’s projected $15.94 million cap hit in 2021 is affordable from San Francisco’s vantage point, especially if it decides to move on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, such a move doesn’t particularly make sense from the Texans’ perspective.

Watson would be a player to build around, yes. And Irvin’s assessment, while inflated, isn’t totally off the mark. The SF 49ers offense would improve dramatically with one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the game.

Yet that’s another reason why Houston wouldn’t want to part ways with its signal-caller. Even if Caserio and whoever is named head coach wants to do a complete tear-down of the current Texans roster, Watson remains a key cog. Sure, Houston made plenty of questionable moves with former head coach and acting general manager Bill O’Brien before he was fired. But Caserio wouldn’t be earning any proverbial points by trading away his team’s biggest star.

Even if he was able to command what would be a massive trade package in return, setting the Texans up for years to come.

Perhaps the only way such a move would make sense is if Watson forced the team’s hand. Yet recent NFL rule changes make it awfully difficult for players to hold out, which is about the only way Watson could force his way out of Houston. It’s possible he elects to do this by some sort of means, yes, and that’s where the thought of the Niners getting him comes into play.

But that’s just as much a possibility as Caserio, a new head coach and the rest of the Texans front office smoothing things over with Watson.

Sure, it would be a massive coup from San Francisco’s side if Watson forced Houston’s hand and was able to work his way towards head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co.

Just don’t bank on it happening, though.