SF 49ers NFL Draft: Where could Niners end up picking in 2021?

With the SF 49ers now eliminated from the playoffs, the multiple scenarios for the 2021 NFL Draft now become much more vital.

Yes, it would be great in some measure for the SF 49ers to perform the spoiler role over their last two games of the 2020 season, helping thwart both of their NFC West rivals, the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, in terms of where they’ll stand in the conference playoff picture.

That painful picture saw the Niners eliminated from contention in Week 15 after a 41-33 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, making head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad look hard at the 5-9 record and a real shot at a top-10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Losing does have its merits amid high expectations. In 2018, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo‘s ACL tear early in the season ultimately led to a 4-12 record and then the No. 2 overall drafting of EDGE Nick Bosa the following year.

With two more games left in the regular season, however, there are a number of scenarios that could pan out based on how San Francisco finishes and how the remainder of the other top-drafting teams round out their final two games, too.

For the SF 49ers’ draftniks, losing out would provide the best-case scenario and would push the Niners’ finishing record to 5-11.

But let’s look at the scenarios a bit more in detail.

Current 2021 NFL Draft order, where SF 49ers stand

Tankathon currently has the Niners poised to select at No. 12 overall, and the top-15 drafting teams are as follows:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
2. NY Jets (1-13)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1)
4. Carolina Panthers (4-10)
5. Atlanta Falcons (4-10)
6. Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (4-10)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1)
8. Dallas Cowboys (5-9)
9. LA Chargers (5-9)
10. NY Giants (5-9)
11. Detroit Lions (5-9)
12. SF 49ers (5-9)
13. Denver Broncos (5-9)
14. Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
15. New England Patriots (6-8)

If the Niners win out and finish 7-9, they could feasibly wind up drafting at Nos. 16 or 17 where the Chicago Bears (7-7) and Las Vegas Raiders (7-7) are currently slated to pick, respectively, although that would require both Chicago and Las Vegas to lose out and have the lower strength of schedule (the first tiebreaker when teams finish with identical records).

But it doesn’t seem likely San Francisco wins both games, and even one seems like a true stretch right now, meaning the logjam of four- and five-win teams ahead of Shanahan and Co. are much more attainable in terms of the draft pecking order.

The top three spots are completely out of reach, and the SF 49ers have only a 0.6-percent chance of securing a top-five selection anyway, according to Football Outsiders. Carolina beating the Washington Football Team would help, as would the Falcons somehow knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. But those are tall orders, too.

Yet the Texans facing off against the Bengals in Week 16 is going to be crucial, as that game could go easily in Houston’s favor, although a Week 17 bout for the Texans against the Tennessee Titans doesn’t appear like a Houston win.

Things get interesting with Dallas’ finish to the season, as it hosts the Eagles in Week 16 before traveling to take on the Giants. With the lowly NFC East in so much flux, all three teams still have a playoff chance, although that lone Philly tie from early this season against Cincinnati actually works in San Francisco’s favor, as long as Dallas wins and the SF 49ers lose out or match a would-be Eagles win total.

All three NFC East teams selecting ahead of the Niners currently have a lower strength of schedule, and there are three inter-divisional games remaining.

So it’s likely at least one, probably two NFC East squads select ahead of San Francisco.

Likewise, the Chargers play the Broncos in Week 16, although LA has a lower strength of schedule, meaning SF 49ers fans should be pulling for a Broncos loss at this point. If all those scenarios pan out, the No. 6 overall pick could be in play.

SF 49ers, other teams in the market for a quarterback

Jacksonville continuing to lose, while the Jets pulled off their first win of 2020, almost assures Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence goes to the Jaguars, although these last two games are still at play.

Out of the top-three drafting teams, only the Bengals are set under center with Joe Burrow, while the Panthers and Falcons could be looking for long-term replacements for quarterbacks Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Ryan, respectively. The Dolphins and Eagles don’t need quarterbacks, which is good, and either team could end up being a prime trade-up partner for a team like the SF 49ers, should they want to go in that direction in 2021. Same with the Chargers, who have a real-deal signal-caller in Justin Herbert.

The Giants, Lions and Cowboys are a bit trickier to evaluate, though.

Does New York move on from its lofty No. 6 overall pick from 2019, Daniel Jones? Are we looking at a complete makeover in Detroit with the Lions moving on from their franchise guy, Matthew Stafford? And what if Dallas elects not to retain its franchise-tagged quarterback, Dak Prescott?

That’s where things get interesting.

The good news, however, is it’s looking like there will be enough top-drafting teams that don’t need quarterbacks, opening up the slew of trade possibilities for San Francisco if it wants to go in that direction.

Likely to start off from the range of pick Nos. 6 through 10.

Hat tip to KNBR 680’s Jake Hutchinson for much of the information.