The SF 49ers dropped an ugly game against the Washington Football Team in Week 14, but there were a few key lessons to be found in the disappointment.
Perhaps the most telling statement of the SF 49ers season is that a week ago, they were tied for eighth in the NFC playoff race, with a head-to-head matchup against the seventh seed to boot, and now they’re a half-game out of the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Week 14 against the Washington Football Team was a must-win for a playoff push, given the ramifications of losing a conference game for tiebreakers, not to mention having already lost any margin of error following a smackdown against the Buffalo Bills the week prior. Dropping this game would not only put the Niners squarely behind in the race for the seventh seed, it would also place them behind the WFT and a lost head-to-head matchup.
So it was a big game to cling onto fringe playoff hopes.
The SF 49ers defense came to play without question, holding Washington to a paltry 3.1 yards per play. Read that again: 3.1 yards per play. That means, on average, the SF 49ers would have forced a 3-and-out on every drive.
Box–score reading would result in major consternation about how the defense somehow gave up 23 points to a Washington offense that had played relatively well in recent weeks with quarterback Alex Smith under center but was not close to the level of offenses that defensive coordinator Robert Saleh had shut down. But the SF 49ers defense forced one turnover, didn’t allow a touchdown, held Washington to 3.1 YARDS PER PLAY, and allowed only nine points on three field goals.
That’s a winning effort from the defense.
That’s why this loss was such a disappointment because the Washington defense scored more points than its offense and was one point shy of the SF 49ers’ offensive total. Three turnovers by the offense — a pick-6, a scoop and score, and another fumble on the wrong side of the field — ended this game.
But even in difficult performances, lessons can be learned. Sometimes, they won’t be what the team needs to hear.
Let’s take a look at three key lessons the SF 49ers should have learned from this game.
Brandon Aiyuk needs to command the SF 49ers target share
Following his second career game, an exceptional performance against a then-struggling NY Giants passing attack, I asked if wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was better than Deebo Samuel.
Most certainly a hot take coming off a rookie’s second game ever, and in answering it, I wrote:
"While Aiyuk probably slots in as definitely a starting-caliber receiver as of now, and a player who should receive a featured role, he is only a rookie. Shanahan said after the game said Aiyuk had some “struggles” in the first half and that he needed to get more aggressive."
Well, fast forward 11 weeks, and Aiyuk has gotten more aggressive, he’s developed rapidly, and though there is a bit of recency bias at play, I’d say that he’s firmly the WR1 for the SF 49ers, tight end George Kittle notwithstanding.
And as such, Aiyuk needs to command a sizeable target share, even in future years.
Since Week 7 against the New England Patriots, Aiyuk has amassed at least five receptions and 75 yards in every game he has played. He’s the purest route runner on the team, and he simply glides. A perfect compliment to what Deebo and Kittle offer, with the capacity to explode this offense when fully healthy.
Against a Washington defense that has been very good both against the run and the pass, Aiyuk caught 10 receptions for 119 yards. He received a whopping 16 targets, and though the Niners won’t be able to give him that many when Kittle and Deebo are both fully healthy, he should still comfortably be receiving double-digit targets every game.
The SF 49ers have had a rather egalitarian approach to targets and spotlighting for players not named Kittle.
But with a player like Aiyuk, that plan needs to change. When you have a star receiver, you give them the rock. Enough said.
Fred Warner masks major holes in the SF 49ers defense
This is something I’m sure the SF 49ers probably knew heading in, but the game against Washington only further proved it: linebacker Fred Warner helps make this defense.
Typically, when talking about a masking agent on defense, you’re either talking about a pass-rusher who’s so uniquely dominant that they’re capable of speeding up a team’s play-clock and force them out of certain plays. The SF 49ers’ running a bevy of sweeps and end-arounds versus the LA Rams because of defesive tackle Aaron Donald lurking in the middle is a good example of that. In the second game in this year’s season series, they went back to a little more traditional action, and Donald nearly won the game for the Rams.
Another type of player who is a masking agent is the deep free safety who can erase the deep third of the field and cover sideline to sideline. Players like safeties Earl Thomas or Ed Reed in their prime, who allow corners to play aggressively because they can cover up any deep mistakes. A shutdown cornerback is like that in a way, but although they can erase a player or a zone, they don’t have the same capacity to mask a mistake from other players like a pass-rush or a deep safety can.
Warner has taken on the role of a masking agent for the SF 49ers. His pass coverage is so ridiculously good he is capable of taking away so many actions teams like to run.
Against Washington, the immediate aftermath following his injury showed exactly that. Washington immediately threw to the running back on the boundaries and tried to hit the middle with more success than they had previously. The reason being, without Warner, those typical table routes a running back run in the flat are far more likely to be successful.
Warner can clean up a bad play from the defensive line on a run and can erase mistakes in coverage. He’s just an all-around superstar. One can only hope his Week 14 injury isn’t too severe or lingering.
SF 49ers quarterback room needs a major shakeup
Again, not a hot take here, but rather something that has been apparent for a while.
Quarterback Nick Mullens did not have a good game, and it’s not just the turnovers that are the issue. Yes, being the direct reason for 14 points that swung the game is a major issue, but Mullens has more issues than just that.
His overall accuracy is severely lacking, resulting in several misses in a game and many places of inefficiencies. Against Buffalo, Mullens simply had to hit Brandon Aiyuk in stride for a touchdown late in the first quarter. He threw low and away, forcing Aiyuk to the ground and removing any chance of yards after the catch.
San Francisco 49ers
Same with his throws on the goal line that sealed that game — he threw his players into a worse position.
Against Washington, it was much of the same.
However, this should not be unexpected. Nick Mullens is a backup quarterback — that’s not an insult, it’s a fact. Expecting him to play at a league-average level is already a stretch, even if it should be expected, given how the SF 49ers seemed to refuse any trade offers for him. Heading into the trade deadline, I wrote, before the Jimmy Garoppolo injury essentially forced the Niners to keep Mullens, that if they could, they should trade Mullens because there will be a minuscule chance he extracts any value for the team in the offseason.
That’s doubly true now because all the factors mentioned in that article still persist plus his unfortunate play down the stretch.
Box-score statistics paint a fun picture of Mullens, but he’s an average backup capable of winning a game or two, but more than capable of losing a game as well. There is no floor of competence with Mullens. With Garoppolo, there is an underlying floor of averageness with the capacity of more, even if he never reaches that consistently.
That’s why Garoppolo is the starter and Mullens is the backup.
The Niners though need more from a backup. If they want a player who can give them average-ish quarterback play and not lose them games, they need a player with a more stable floor than Mullens has, and that would likely come in the form of a veteran. If they want a player who they can develop and has high-end potential but the same lack of consistency that Mullens has, they need to look for a player in the draft.
In either case, both Mullens and No. 3 quarterback C.J. Beathard, who has shown neither the capacity to play well nor the potential necessary, should have a new home next year.
Should the Niners be willing to splurge for a high-priced backup for Garoppolo if he stays? Not in my opinion, no. But the production Mullens gives, despite his cheap contract, can be found in players who do it more consistently for cheap or found in players who have more upside.
It’s time for the Niners to shake up their QB room, and though bigger changes might happen, at the very least they need to take care of the back end.