Although SF 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens’ contract makes it likely he’s part of the team next year, now is the time to trade him.
Editor’s note: This article was written before ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Jimmy Garoppolo would be sidelined indefinitely after Week 8. Still, the idea of trading Nick Mullens contained herein is awfully provocative and interesting.
When any team loses its starting quarterback for an extended period of time, it’s a big deal and sometimes a season-ender. The SF 49ers are no different, although some could argue with head coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheming, they could work around it better than others.
In the end, though, the man behind center matters.
This fragility of a season related to a quarterback is exactly why No. 2 quarterback Nick Mullens has stayed on the roster for the last few years. As an undrafted free agent from Southern Mississippi, he burst on the scene following the benching of C.J. Beathard by lighting up the then-Oakland Raiders on Thursday Night Football in 2018 before proceeding to beat the Seattle Seahawks at home. Mullens played admirably well, and though some considered a quarterback competition to be a real situation, the general consensus was the Niners had a capable backup in case the starter, Jimmy Garoppolo, got hurt.
Fast-forward to the present. 2019 came and went, the SF 49ers went from burgeoning team to bonafide contender, Garoppolo was healthy and productive, if not a world-beater, and the season ended in disappointment. Then the 2020 season, where Garoppolo played poorly against the Arizona Cardinals, lit up the NY Jets for a half before finally succumbing to a high-ankle sprain, and in came Mullens.
Mullens was OK in a half’s work against the Jets — call it nerves — sensational against the NY Giants, and collapsed against the Philadelphia Eagles, playing a huge role in handing the SF 49ers a loss they should not have had. It was a stark reminder Mullens’ starting aspirations simply were not likely to come true.
Then Garoppolo came back and the offense, after struggling versus the Miami Dolphins, looked to be in a groove. Then the Week 8 Seattle Seahawks game happened.
With a must-win divisional game, Garopppolo faded and injured himself, while Mullens, while playing garbage snaps against a prevent defense, lit up the Seahawks to the tune of 238 yards and two touchdowns.
Not the same situation, but a good showcase of his peak performance.
The 2020 NFL trade deadline is coming up when Mullens is currently a pending restricted free agent. The Niners have no rush to trade him, technically. As a restricted free agent, they could slap a tender, and if a team signed him, it’d have to give up that type of pick (i.e. first-round tender equals first-round pick to the SF 49ers).
But for a multitude of reasons, it’s time to move on and capitalize something in return before the deadline. Let’s explore the two biggest ones.
Future of the SF 49ers Quarterback Room
Nick Mullens has flashed at times, struggled at others, and overall shown himself to be exactly what the realistic best-case is with a UDFA quarterback: a quality backup capable of treading water while the starter heals. That’s not a bad thing by any means, but it’s important to frame Mullens in the right light when talking about this.
The SF 49ers currently have three quarterbacks on the roster: Mullens, Jimmy Garoppolo, and C.J. Beathard. Garoppolo is the unquestioned starter out of these three, and Mullens, despite a brief benching against the Eagles, is the backup. Beathard is another story that cannot be reasonably explained, so I’m not even going to get into his situation.
Garoppolo is also being paid a handsome amount, though the contract value relative to the league’s quarterback price has reduced. With an AAV (average annual value) of $27.5 million, it’s safe to say the Niners have hooked onto him for the long haul, right?
Well, it’s not that simple.
Under the team-friendly contract structure generated by contracts negotiator Paraag Marathe with nearly every player, Garoppolo’s contract has an easy out after this year, leaving the Niners with a relatively clean balance sheet.
Garoppolo’s play this year has also been fine but not spectacular, prompting questions about whether the SF 49ers would try to make a move for either a player through a trade or in the draft.
In any case, it seems the Niners may try to add some fresh faces to the position group.
If the Niners move on from Garoppolo, which I’m not sure if they do, the replacement — either a rookie or a high-priced veteran — would take the starting position without question, leaving Mullens with no better role than he has now. The only difference would be that his contract tolled one more year, leaving less time and less leverage for the Niners to potentially recoup value.
The other situation would be the SF 49ers keeping Garoppolo but drafting a player to groom in the wings and develop. In that case, keeping Mullens on the roster would provide no additional value since the rookie behind Garoppolo would be the new backup.
In short, the uncertainty of the SF 49ers quarterback room makes it likely that there is no real future for Mullens in San Francisco. Some attempt to recoup value should happen.
The question becomes: Why now?
Implications of the 2021 NFL Draft on SF 49ers
The SF 49ers, despite their tough schedule and compounding injuries, will not struggle enough to garner a top draft pick to select a high-profile quarterback like Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State’s Justin Fields, barring a momentous drop or a trade.
That’s not the biggest way the draft will affect the 49ers.
Though I’m sure the SF 49ers could try to make a major trade, like the Kansas City Chiefs did to pick Patrick Mahomes back in 2017, more likely they’d draft a quarterback on day two or three if they chose to do so. What will be an issue is the quarterbacks floating the market around this time.
San Francisco 49ers
The current draft order, and this is obviously subject to change, puts the Jets in line for the first overall pick, the Giants for the second overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars third, Miami by way of the Houston Texans fourth, the Atlanta Falcons fifth, Dallas Cowboys sixth, Washington seventh, the Patriots ninth, the Minnesota Vikings 10th, and so on.
The reason I bring these teams up is their currently precarious quarterback situations.
The Jets currently have Sam Darnold, the Giants have Daniel Jones, the Dolphins started Tua Tungavailoa because they want to see if they should start heavily scouting the QBs in this draft, the Falcons have Matt Ryan, the Cowboys have a currently injured Dak Prescott they’d likely let test the market, should they choose to draft a player, the Vikings have a Kyle Shanahan favorite, Kirk Cousins, and the Football Team has already benched Dwayne Haskins. All these players have some form of prior success or pedigree exceeding that of Mullens.
The Cardinals’ selection of Kyler Murray in 2019, when they had just taken Josh Rosen in 2018, set the precedent for moves like this, and the allure of a Fields or the biggest fish of them all, Lawrence, is hard to pass upon.
Even if all these teams don’t draft a top-round rookie, the ones that do will have a glut of quarterbacks they’d likely trade out of. Most teams would take a Darnold or a Jones over Nick Mullens.
The fact of the matter is the quarterback trade market will become extremely saturated this offseason, taking away the primary method by which the SF 49ers could recoup value. Trading Mullens now acts before the glut and maximizes value, especially after a performance against Seattle that will turn heads, even if it was fools’ gold.
If the SF 49ers don’t trade him now, he’ll likely never give much of any payoff.
Will the SF 49ers move on? Probably not. Continuity and cheapness at the backup position might be enticing enough to the cash-strapped Niners. But if they want to maximize a fruitful investment in a UDFA, trading Mullens now is the move.