SF 49ers vs. LA Rams: Sean McVay isn’t better than Kyle Shanahan

With the SF 49ers playing the LA Rams this week, questions about who is better, Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan, have once again popped up.

No, the SF 49ers didn’t make a mistake hiring head coach Kyle Shanahan instead of another candidate they interviewed back in 2017, now-Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay.

But with the 4-6 Niners set to take on the 7-3 NFC West-leading Rams in Week 12, it was only a matter of time before analysts and pundits out there started calling out questions about a possible mistake in San Francisco’s hiring choices.

Granted, this isn’t to say McVay is a bad head coach. He’s not. McVay, like Shanahan, is one of the most innovative offensive minds in football. He’s had great team success, including two 10-plus-win seasons and a Super Bowl appearance, and it’s looking like he’ll have yet another above-.500 campaign this year, too.

Even Los Angeles’ “down year” following their Super Bowl loss resulted in a 9-7 finish.

Meanwhile, Shanahan is looking like he’ll be dealing with a third sub-.500 season in as many years, interrupted by that 13-3 finish and Super Bowl appearance in 2019.

So, naturally, you’re going to get quick-take analysis and facts without context like this:

Let’s take a quick walk down memory lane, shall we?

Context matters in SF 49ers, LA Rams debate between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay

Yes, McVay’s win-loss record entering Week 12 of 2020 is 40-18-0, while Shanahan’s is 27-31-0.

As far as bottom-line businesses go, McVay is superior, right? Wins and losses do matter, and no one is questioning that.

Except for the fact McVay inherited a playoff-caliber roster in 2017 that included a Pro Bowl running back in Todd Gurley, an up-and-coming quarterback in Jared Goff and arguably the league’s best defensive player, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, all of whom were mired in the mediocrity of former head coach Jeff Fisher.

Shanahan, meanwhile, inherited a 2-14 squad from the previous year, which led to both him and general manager John Lynch purging over 70 percent of the roster they inherited. Did Lynch and Shanahan make mistakes along the way, namely choosing defensive end Solomon Thomas instead of quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson in that year’s NFL Draft? Sure.

But it doesn’t eliminate the context of both teams’ situations at all.

Jump forward to 2018. The SF 49ers traded for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo the previous year and won five consecutive games to close out 2017. But in Week 3 the following season, Garoppolo suffered his infamous ACL tear, all but derailing any chances the Niners had to back up their strong finish to 2017. Additionally, San Francisco watched its top running back that season, Jerick McKinnon, suffer the same injury before Week 1 even hit.

Now, envision McVay trying to get by that year without Goff or Gurley available to him for 14 games. The 13-3 regular-season record wouldn’t have happened. That’s for sure.

San Francisco had its own 13-3 record last year, of course, while the LA Rams went through their own Super Bowl “hangover,” not totally unlike what the Niners are enduring now. Gurley was jettisoned at the end of it, and McVay ushered in some major coaching changes, too.

That led us to 2020. The LA Rams are good again, while the SF 49ers aren’t.

But, injuries. Those matter.

Garoppolo has been in and out of the Niners lineup because of injuries this season. Goff hasn’t. And while Jimmy G is far from perfect, and one can argue whether San Francisco will move on from him in 2021, it’s at least fair to assess Garoppolo gives Shanahan a much better chance at winning games than either of his two backups, Nick Mullens or C.J. Beathard.

Goff has missed precisely one game, Week 17 in 2018 when McVay rested his starters, during the timeframe when McVay and Shanahan have been head coaches.

In contrast, Garoppolo has missed 17 at the Week 12 mark of this season.

Garoppolo might not be an elite quarterback. But neither is Goff. The key difference here is McVay has had consistency at the position to a far greater extent than Shanahan.

And that leads us to the 2020 context.

No other team has faced more injuries this season than San Francisco. It’s not even close. Right now, the SF 49ers have 16 players on injured reserve, while the LA Rams have seven. Taking into account the entirety of the season, the Niners had well over 150 man-games lost to injury after Week 8, according to ManGamesLost.com:

The Rams had less than 50.

One of San Francisco’s key losses, EDGE Nick Bosa to a torn ACL in Week 2, all but derailed its best defensive unit. It would be the near equivalent of Los Angeles losing a player like Donald for the season, yet the SF 49ers still maintain the league’s seventh-best defense in terms of yards allowed.

And as far as offenses moving the ball, the Niners rank 15th in total yards gained despite injuries to Garoppolo and other offensive contributors. The more-healthy Rams are fifth in this category.

One can conclusively look at all the data here and come to two conclusions: McVay isn’t a better head coach than Shanahan. Both are good in their own respects, and that’s fine to argue. The only other conclusion is Shanahan was dealt a much tougher hand, both when taking over the SF 49ers and with the magnitude of injuries he’s had to overcome in the years since.