49ers predicted to get one compensatory pick in 2021 NFL Draft

The San Francisco 49ers are likely to receive one compensatory pick in the 2021 NFL Draft following the loss of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in free agency this offseason.

While it wasn’t cheap for the San Francisco 49ers to acquire veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders from the Denver Broncos halfway through the 2019 campaign, ultimately costing a third- and fourth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the transaction ultimately had some notable benefits.

The first, of course, was Sanders’ production and presence, which eventually paid huge dividends in the Niners’ ability to make it to Super Bowl LIV and nearly winning it.

The other benefit was, if Sanders was to leave in free agency during the offseason, San Francisco would likely be rewarded with a compensatory pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Sanders ultimately left for the New Orleans Saints, signing a two-year, $16 million deal to go to yet another Super Bowl contender. Meanwhile, the Niners re-signed their two other big-name free agents, defensive end Arik Armstead and safety Jimmie Ward, preventing them from signing elsewhere.

The team made another qualifying free-agent move on the open market by signing former New York Jets offensive guard Tom Compton, yet that was cancelled out by the departure of tight end Levine Toilolo via free agency to the New York Giants. As such, it’s likely the 49ers wind up getting one compensatory selection in next year’s draft.

The folks over at Over the Cap put together a compilation of the expected comp picks for all 32 teams around the league, and they project San Francisco receiving a fifth-round compensatory selection in 2021 for Sanders’ annual average salary of $8 million.

The NFL has a formula determining which rounds comp picks are awarded. While there are a lot of different factors going into this determination, one of the biggest is the financial value assigned to the departing player’s new team. Had Sanders signed somewhere in the range of $10 million to $12 million per year, it’s likely the projected 49ers comp pick would wind up in Round 4 or perhaps even 3. OTC’s average-per-year (APY) valuation is the critical determining factor, and the APY cutoff is at 195 out of 1,935 contracts.

Sanders’ new contract sits at 255, putting him squarely into Round 5 range.

While this might seem a little low, at least based off Sanders’ value to the Niners last year, it’s comforting to know the 49ers have made good on a number of fifth-round picks before.

Tight end George Kittle (2017) and linebacker Dre Greenlaw (2019) are two of the best examples, recently.

The NFL will likely announce compensatory selections for the 2021 NFL Draft in March of the same year.