How much will 49ers miss DeForest Buckner in 2020?
By Peter Panacy
The San Francisco 49ers electing to trade away DeForest Buckner will have consequences on the defense, which could prove to be profound and long-lasting.
On the positive side, the San Francisco 49ers‘ decision to trade away 2018 Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the Indianapolis Colts meant the Niners were able to re-sign two of their other top free agents, defensive end Arik Armstead and safety Jimmie Ward, to new deals while also freeing up the would-be money they’d have to spend on Buckner’s new deal — $21 million annually with the Colts, per Over the Cap.
On the downside, the 49ers defense is worse without Buckner. There’s no getting around that.
Ever since San Francisco grabbed Buckner with its first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, he has been a pillar of the defense. Not just on the field, but in the locker room, too.
Even with a stacked defensive line, which included Armstead, defensive end Solomon Thomas and EDGEs Nick Bosa and Dee Ford last year, Buckner still played 810 of the defense’s total snaps — 78.7 percent.
That’s quite a lot.
And while Buckner’s 7.5 sacks in 2019 were down from the career-high 12 he enjoyed the year before, it was often the little things Buckner did that provided big dividends: eating up double-teams, allowing Bosa, Armstead and Ford to enjoy some prolific sack production.
In base downs, the Niners are likely to insert Armstead into Buckner’s 3-technique spot, while putting nose tackle D.J. Jones in the 1-technique inside.
This isn’t a bad arrangement at all, considering Jones had himself an excellent year before suffering a season-ending ankle injury late in 2019. But base downs are no longer the primary alignment for NFL offenses and defenses. Sub packages have become the norm, and that’s where the 49ers could miss Buckner for the foreseeable future.
One could argue Thomas is the primary beneficiary, and perhaps 2020 winds up being the year in which he finally plays up to the level for which third-overall draftees strive. But if past evidence is any indication of the future, Thomas won’t be the single long-term solution.
NBC Sports Bay Area’s Matt Maiocco suggested San Francisco would go with a rotation to replace Buckner’s efforts:
"The 49ers will use a rotation to replace Buckner. One player will not be able to step in and take his place. They also should try to give Armstead and Bosa more rest.Edge rusher Dee Ford is an important piece of the defense, and the 49ers must limit his snaps to keep him healthy and fresh in order to close out games with his ability to get to the quarterback.Players such as Solomon Thomas, D.J. Jones, Ronald Blair and, possibly, Kentavius Street and Jullian Taylor could help the 49ers form a rotation on the defensive line to take some of the stress off Armstead and Bosa."
All that may replace the snap counts. But will it replace Buckner’s production?
Most likely not, at least on the surface. Yet this doesn’t mean all “doom and gloom” for San Francisco’s defense, either.
The Niners still boast a potent defensive front, combined with an excellent linebacking corps and an adequate secondary, which will likely see reinforcements in the upcoming draft. It’s possible the maturation of players like Bosa and, hopefully, a player like Thomas finally reaching something close to his initial potential help negate the loss Buckner leaves.
Next. 5 Niners who could extend their contracts in 2020. dark
At least that’s the hope.