49ers to dump Jimmy Garoppolo for Kirk Cousins in 2021?

The San Francisco 49ers aren’t going to drop quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for Tom Brady this offseason. But one rumor suggests Kirk Cousins could be in play a year from now.

None of this is to suggest the San Francisco 49ers should or will move on from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo anytime soon, certainly not in the immediate future. And if you’re in the minority thinking the Niners aggressively pursue soon-to-be free-agent quarterback Tom Brady this offseason, stop.

But what if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t in San Francisco’s long-term plans?

There’s an argument to be made here, and it’s one pointed out by Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, suggesting head coach Kyle Shanahan could try to reunify with a former protege, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, in 2021:

"Let’s start with Brady’s interest in the Niners, and you can ask yourself this question: If the greatest player of all-time wanted to play for you, wouldn’t you have to—whether he was 30 or 50—discuss it? I think that’s where the Niners are right now. What becomes of it, I don’t know. But I do know there’s been perception in league circles that Jimmy Garoppolo is on the clock, because Kirk Cousins is a free agent in 2021. (I still believe Brady landing in San Francisco is very unlikely, but maybe a significant return for Garoppolo would change the equation.)"

Let’s try to make sense of this speculation, first by pointing out the mere facts.

Cousins enters the final year of that lucrative three-year, fully guaranteed $84 million contract signed with the Vikings back in 2018. Barring an extension or being re-signed, the veteran will hit the open market at 32 years old.

Garoppolo, meanwhile, will cost nearly $27 million against the 49ers cap in 2021. If the Niners part ways a little less than a year from now, it generates $24.1 million in cap savings against $2.8 million in dead money, according to Over the Cap.

Facts also include the connection between Shanahan and Cousins, who worked together with the Washington Redskins in 2012 and 2013.

General manager John Lynch also added some commentary to the relationship between Shanahan and Cousins back in 2018 on ESPN’s Golic and Wingo Show (h/t the Washington Post):

"For Kyle, I think the thing I would tell people is, we made the trade, but then there were some days that Kyle Shanahan was like in mourning, because I think everybody knows his master plan was to have Kirk Cousins come in eventually. I was proud of Kyle, because I think he knew that this was the right thing for our franchise. And he didn’t hesitate. But then, even then, Jimmy had to really prove himself."

Those are the big facts. Now comes the speculation.

Jimmy Garoppolo was essentially gifted to the 49ers in 2017. And aside from a bad quarter-plus in Super Bowl LIV, he’s been highly productive in Shanahan’s offense. But there continues to be the speculation from writers like Breer and even ESPN’s Dianna Russini:

"I think we all know the history between Kyle Shanahan and Kirk Cousins. This is something that has been going on for years. I’ve never seen somebody want a quarterback as bad as Kyle Shanahan has [wanted Cousins]. It was a deal that almost happened too. Kirk Cousins almost wound up with Kyle in San Francisco."

All this points to one key date in 2021: the start of free agency.

But whatever actions at that point are predicated on a lot of other developments between now and then. Cousins, while good in Minnesota, was brought in to be the difference maker for the Vikings. It’s hard to suggest he’s lived up to that billing over two years, although his 2020 efforts will certainly influence whatever decision the Vikings make regarding the quarterback’s future.

The same goes for Jimmy G, too.

If Garoppolo winds up putting together a solid-to-outstanding season in 2020, regardless of playoff finishes or whatever, that could also prevent Shanahan from ultimately wanting to make the switch.

There’s also the argument Garoppolo is notably younger than Cousins as well. And the former has started a mere 26 games at the pro level, whereas Cousins has started 88. There has to be a point in a quarterback’s career where the word “development” no longer carries the same weight as it once did.

Still, it’s likely going to be hard shaking the possibility Shanahan might want to go after Cousins again, given the chance, which would hinge on how Garoppolo performs this upcoming season.

But if Jimmy G winds up having a stellar year, the entirety of rumors and arguments could be made into a moot point.