49ers shouldn’t go after Bengals WR A.J. Green in free agency

Cincinnati Bengals star wide receiver A.J. Green is set to hit the NFL free agency market for the first time in his career, but in spite of a hole at the position for the team, the San Francisco 49ers don’t make sense as a potential destination for the wideout.

Heading into the offseason, the San Francisco 49ers are in a position they haven’t found themselves in for several years: not needing to make a lot of moves to be competitive in 2020.

After winning both the NFC West and the NFC Championship in 2019, the Niners appear poised to stay among the NFL’s elite teams coming into next season, and they should be able to do without being terribly active during the offseason. Part of that is due to both a lack of cap space and draft picks, but also just because the team doesn’t have a lot of holes to fill.

One area of concern might be the so-called No. 1 receiver position, one that the 49ers filled just prior to this past season’s trade deadline by trading for former Broncos receiver Emmanuel Sanders. But now Sanders is a free agent, and there is some uncertainty about whether he will return to the team for 2020 and beyond.

Enter Bengals star wide receiver A.J. Green, a name which has been bandied about by many as a potential free-agent pickup for the 49ers this offseason, both on this site and in the national media.

This all makes a certain sense because, when healthy, Green has been one of the best receivers in the NFL. In 111 career games, he’s caught 602 passes for 8,907 yards (14.8 YPC), 63 touchdowns and a whopping 409 first downs — which means that a ridiculous 78.5 percent of his receptions were either scores or first downs.

There’s no doubt Green is a supremely talented player who has often been among the best at his position and was paid as such back in 2015 when he signed a four-year, $60 million extension with Cincinnati, $26.75 million of which was guaranteed.

But since inking the deal, Green has been up and down in terms of his availability. Although he played in all 16 games in 2015, he missed six games the following season, before suiting up for the full season again in 2017.

The seesaw continued in 2018, where he missed seven games, before missing the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury suffered on a sub-par field at Dayton University as part of the NFL’s 100th season celebration.

So while there is no doubt Green has been productive during his time as a Bengal, there’s also a lot of doubt about his ability to stay healthy, having missed 29 out of a possible 64 games the past four seasons. He’s been productive when he has played, but the 49ers already have a bevy of wide receivers on the roster who are getting paid and not seeing the field.

This is one of the main reasons that Niners should steer clear of Green in NFL free agency, especially if he’s looking to score one more major contract to finish off his career. The four-year, $84 million contract ESPN’s Bill Barnwell suggested should be one that the 49ers run as far away from as possible.

For one, the 49ers just don’t have that kind of cap space at the moment. Even if they make some cuts, such as wide receiver Marquise Goodwin or running back Jerick McKinnon, there are more pressing matters at hand.

With extensions for core pieces, like defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and tight end George Kittle coming up, along with the need to re-sign key 2019 contributors, like defensive lineman Arik Armstead or safety Jimmie Ward, bringing in Green for that kind of money would be irresponsible and send the wrong message to the locker room.

While the money and the wideout’s recent injury history are part of the rationale, Green’s age is also an issue. Green will turn 32 years old in late July, and history would suggest that getting older will make it harder for Green to stay healthy, not the other way around.

On top of all that, the 49ers have a few players at the position that have either underperformed for the last few seasons or have been unable to play due to injury.

Slot wide receiver Trent Taylor also missed all of last season with a foot injury, and while he isn’t anywhere near Green in terms of impact or talent, having Taylor back could be a boon for the Niners offense, as he and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo built up quite a rapport during the end of 2017 and into 2018 before the quarterback’s injury derailed the duo.

Rookie wideout Jalen Hurd also missed the whole of last season with a back injury, and while he remains an unknown quantity because of multiple setbacks, the team thought enough of him to draft him in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. If nothing else, his size and versatility will provide the head coach Kyle Shanahan with another weapon to work with next season.

It’s also possible that the whole “the 49ers don’t have a No. 1 receiver” argument might be moot because of the late-season emergence of rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel.

While he got off to an inconsistent start, the former South Carolina product finished off his season quite well, with two straight 100-yard receiving performances in Weeks 8 and 9, and ending the year with 57 catches for 802 yards (14.07 YPC) and three touchdowns, not to mention his 14 carries for 159 yards (11.36 YPC) and three more touchdowns.

His performance in the playoffs was even more impressive, as he caught 10 passes for 127 yards (12.7 YPC) and ran the ball six times for 102 yards (17.0 YPC), often emerging as a top offensive option for Shanahan throughout the run to the Super Bowl.

The point is that Samuel might have made a case for himself as the 49ers’ best receiving option heading into 2020, and adding Taylor and Hurd to the mix which also includes Kittle and the ever-improving Kendrick Bourne (provided the team brings him back), might be good enough to power the offense not only for 2020 but for years beyond that.

Much of this argument comes down to what Green wants out of free agency. If his goal is to cash in with one more big payday before he hangs up his cleats for good, then it’s likely the 49ers aren’t going to be an option for him and he shouldn’t be a player the team spends too much time looking into this offseason.

However, if Green is tired of losing (the Bengals are just 73-69-2 in his tenure, with just 21 wins over the past four seasons), and wants to take a smaller deal to go to a contender to finish out his career, the 49ers make a lot of sense, especially with cap wizard Paraag Marathe handling contracts.

Under the circumstances and the way the team is currently constructed, it makes sense for the 49ers to plan not just to contend in 2020, but also to keep the Super Bowl window open as long as possible. Signing Green to a massive contract may help with the former but will do very little to secure the latter.

So as great a player as Green has been and could still be, the 49ers should likely stay away from signing him in free agency.