3 stats that will determine if 49ers will win Super Bowl 54
By Elvis Jerez
21 Personnel
Personnel group or “package” refers to the number of running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers an offense will deploy against an opposing defense. The first digit refers to the number of backs, while the second digit refers to the number of tight ends used in each play. Wide receivers do not have a corresponding digit as there are only five skill positions at play.
For instance, an “11 personnel package” will see one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers on the play. In today’s football, this is the most popular personnel package, used 66 percent of the time. Pass-heavy teams enjoy having three wideouts to benefit from a fast and vertical field. The 49ers have little interest in this package, ranking 31st in the league in its usage.
The 49ers’ preferred grouping is the 21 personnel package consisting of two backs, one tight end, and two receivers. According to Chris Raybon of the Action Network, San Francisco leads the league in using this package, almost 40 percent of the time, with 47 percent efficiency. With a four-headed monster in the backfield comprised of: Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and Kyle Juszczyk, and one of the best tight ends in football, George Kittle, it’s easy to see why.
Given Shanahan’s affinity for playaction trickery and his David Copperfield-level misdirection, this personnel grouping translates remarkably well into measured success. Using screens, boots, and crossing routes, the 49ers use this personnel group 47 percent of the time on passing plays with a 53 percent success rate, and 53 percent of the time on rushing plays with 41 percent success rate.
Someone once said, “Great teams have great tendencies.” In the NFL, that means you can run the plays you know and can execute well – over and over again – in a way that a defense can’t adjust because you’re so good at it.
When deploying 21 personnel group, the 49ers accrued eight rushing touchdowns and raked in an impressive 5.7 yards per carry. In passing situations, however, that picture changes to a modest 3:2 touchdown to interception rate, but a healthy 9.9 yards per attempt.
Why is this important?
In Super Bowl 54, San Francisco will use 21 personnel or other heavy packages for two reasons: one, they succeed incredibly well within their system, and two, it is a fundamental weakness for Kansas City.
Per the Action Network, the Chiefs allow 5.3 yards per carry against 21 personnel groups and 4.85 yards per carry against other heavy packages. It’s all about matching up an intrinsic strength against an exploitable weakness.
Bottom line: if the 49ers successfully leverage their might against the Chiefs’ vulnerability with heavy personnel packages, then the 49ers win Super Bowl 54.