3 stats that will determine if 49ers will win Super Bowl 54

20 Completions

There is no question quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs can put up a stratospheric amount of points.  They’ve proven they can easily fall behind early, and can just as quickly turn around, catch up to, and beat their opponent.  Sure, the highest-ranked defense they faced in the playoffs ranked 16th, but they’re still a force with which to be reckoned.

To win Super Bowl 54, the 49ers offense must keep up mathematically, if, for some reason, the Niners’ defense falls flat.  On these occasions during the season, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had to air it out over 20 times per game, and that kept the 49ers in the game.

This very situation recently happened three years ago in Super Bowl 51, so it’s not like it can’t repeat.  The Atlanta Falcons held the New England Patriots 28-3 at halftime thanks, in part, to the wizardry of then-Falcons offensive coach Kyle Shanahan.

The second half was a different story: poor play-calling and lousy clock-management on Shanahan’s part, coupled with an aggressive New England offense, allowed for a resurgence from the Patriots that resulted in 31 unanswered points and a 34-28 Super Bowl win.

The naysayers claim Jimmy G and Shanahan are not as talented, experienced, or bold as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichek.  Perhaps they think the 49ers are incapable of unleashing the aerial attack necessary to contend with, let alone defeat the robust Andy Reid-led Cheifs offense.

Reality suggests otherwise.

The truth is the 49ers have been in that predicament several times this year. During the regular season, the 49ers lacked elite starters on both sides of the ball in every single game.  Having vital defensive players out of the lineup between Weeks 9 and 16 proved tough.

The 49ers turned to Jimmy G’s offense to stay competitive.  The results speak for themselves:

• Week 9 versus the Arizona Cardinals, Jimmy G threw 28 of 37, 49ers won 28-25
• Week 11 versus the Arizona Cardinals, Jimmy G threw 34 of 45, 49ers won 36-26
• Week 14 versus the New Orleans Saints, Jimmy G threw 26 of 35, 49ers won 48-46
• Week 16 versus the L.A. Rams, Jimmy G threw 16 of 27, 49ers won 34-31

Having key elements missing from the dominant defense during this stretch allowed opponents to run up the scoreboard against the 49ers.  It also forced Garoppolo and the offense to keep up to win, something they did so successfully 6 of 8 times during that span.

“But this is Patrick Mahomes! The 49ers are gonna get rolled by him, and Jimmy G is far less talented, plus they don’t trust him to throw the ball.”  That’s the pervasive public outcry so often heard.  Mahomes is a talented guy; no one is questioning that.

Let’s pump the breaks on this Jimmy G shade-train and see what the numbers say. Examine 16 game’s worth of production:

• QB (A)  – 69% completion rate / 3,978 yards / 27 touchdowns
• QB (B) – 65% completion rate / 4,031 yards / 26 touchdowns

Fifty-three yards and one touchdown.  That’s what separates Jimmy G, QB (A), from Mahomes, QB (B). Yes, Garoppolo threw one more touchdown than Mahomes. Still, the negative sentiment persists, “The evidence must lie in the completions and interceptions stats though, right?” Look for yourself:

• Garoppolo – 329 completions / 13 interceptions
• Mahomes – 319 completions / 5 interceptions

“Ah, there it is! Fewer interceptions prove Mahomes is the superior quarterback!” claims the doubter. With a potent run game and a star-studded defense, interceptions are not as devastating as one might imagine. Even when we account for the interceptions and lack of talent at wide receiver Garoppolo faces look at their passer ratings for the 2019 regular season:

• Garoppolo – 102.30
• Mahomes – 105.31

A minuscule difference.

“The Herd” host Colin Cowherd also doesn’t get the negative perception of Garoppolo.  Noted, Cowherd:

"“Everty scout I know likes Jimmy Garoppolo. Fifty percent of the fans are struggling with it. Folks, he got to the Super Bowl, he carried this team in the middle of the season when they fell apart physically.”"

Here’s the full video:

Which of the two quarterbacks is superior is a baseless outcry.  At the end of the day, there are two talented, evenly matched, elite-level quarterbacks who each helped their team reach the biggest stage in football.  Let’s celebrate that, shall we?

Bottom line: the 49ers have a quarterback in Jimmy G and a head coach in Shanahan who can keep up with Mahomes and Reid. If the 49ers get into a situation where they have to air the ball out 20+ times, the 49ers can win Super Bowl 54.