Super Bowl LIV: 5 reasons the 49ers can beat the Chiefs

No. 3: 49ers Have the Slight Edge on Third Downs

Third-down success is one of the key metrics in evaluating just how good any team can be over the course of a season, particularly in the playoffs. Both the 49ers and Chiefs were excellent on third downs this year.

Kansas City’s 47.3 conversion percentage ranked second-best in the league this year, while the Niners were only a few points behind at 44.6, which was good for fourth.

Interestingly enough: Jimmy Garoppolo actually had the regular-season edge over Patrick Mahomes through the air in this category, converting 50 percent of his 130 third-down pass attempts for a first down. That ranked No. 1 among all quarterbacking qualifiers in 2019.

Mahomes, meanwhile, completed 46.1 percent of such throws, which was sixth-best.

Garoppolo might have a slight advantage on third-down throws, but there is a notable difference when it comes to defenses allowing opponents to convert in this crucial situation.

During the regular season, the 49ers allowed third-down conversions just 32.4 percent of the time, which was second in the NFL. Kansas City, meanwhile, allowed such conversions to happen 36.6 percent of the time, good for 10th.

While the Chiefs’ figure is still strong, this suggests the Niners are better prepared for this crucial down, particularly from the defensive vantage point.

When it comes to ensuring Mahomes and a potent Chiefs offense is kept off the field as much as possible, the Niners’ ability to sustain drives and prevent Kansas City from doing the same will be vital in determining the outcome.