Packers vs. 49ers: Why Week 12 is a harbinger of 2020 NFC Championship game

The San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers square off for the second time this season, this time with the 2020 NFC Championship on the line. The 49ers’ win in Week 12 serves as a precursor to this weekend.

The San Francisco 49ers lag 31-36-1 overall against the Green Bay Packers. They’ve met seven times in the playoffs and the Packers lead the series 4-3. The last time these teams played, however, was Week 12 at Levi’s Stadium— the the last time the Packers lost.

The 49ers are looking for a repeat to advance to Super Bowl LIV.

There are plenty of signs pointing to a 49ers victory, yet nothing is guaranteed in the playoffs. Niner Noise examines these signs and finds the outcome of Week 12 is very likely to reoccur.

But first, a brief recap.

It was absolute domination as the 49ers routed the Packers 37-8. The 49ers put up 227 yards through the air and another 112 yards on the ground. The Packers didn’t even crack 200 total yards of offense.

Rodgers could not get any rhythm going. He was 23-of-30 for 104 yards and one touchdown, compiling a passer rating of 91.53. He was sacked five times. As it turns out, that game was not an outlier for Rodgers.

He just hasn’t been himself this season.

He finished the season with a respectable, yet subpar passer rating—by his standards—of only 95.39. By comparison, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo finished with a passer rating of 102.03.

To think that somehow Rodgers can turn the tide in one game, especially a playoff game, is just not realistic.

Could it happen? Absolutely. He is, after all, a future Hall of Fame quarterback. But it’s not in the cards.

Some may argue that Rodgers has 17 playoff starts and is unquestionably the most experienced among the final four quarterbacks in this year’s playoffs. While true, the problem with that line of reasoning is the bulk of those starts came in his first eight years in the league.

And this year, the mountain he must climb is gargantuan.

The 49ers were severely understaffed in Week 12, with seven key starters out. Among those players was EDGE Dee Ford. Having Ford on the filed prevents teams from double-teaming rookie sensation EDGE Nick Bosa.

Still, the 49ers repeatedly found their way to Rodgers—something he doesn’t handle very well.

According to Action Network, Rodgers has a passer rating of under 74 when pressured, which translates into the 4th worst league-wide, per NFL Network’s Cynthia Frelund.

For the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers will be operating at full-strength on defense. Game-changers Ford, SAM linebacker Kwon Alexander, and strong safety Jaquiski Tartt are back in the defensive lineup.

Remember what they did to the Minnesota Vikings last week? This should be no different.

Per NFL.com, the 49ers defense allows 13.6 fewer points when both Alexander and Ford are on the field.  If the Packers struggled in Week 12, this weekend should be a nightmare.

49ers defensive coordinator, Robert Saleh should have no problem rushing four and dropping seven in coverage with that star-studded lineup. With Bosa and Ford on tap, the Niners simply don’t have to blitz to create pressure, which allows the secondary to stayed glued to receivers.

When targeted, cornerback Richard Sherman allows a pedestrian passer rating of only 46.8. However, he doesn’t shadow the number one receiver.

Rodgers will almost certainly avoid the right side and take his shots with Packers star Davante Adams on the left side versus either Akhello Witherspoon or Emmanuel Moseley.

Overall, the 49ers’ defense is hungry and scary. In Week 12, the Packers went 1-of-15 on third down attempts against the 49ers. That was no anomaly for either team.

Action Network points out the Packers rank 23rd on achieving third down conversions, a key metric of offensive success.

Conversely, the 49ers defense allowed the third-fewest amount of third down and fourth down conversions. When you’ve got a team that struggles on critical downs playing against a team that excels at preventing them, it’s bad news for the Packers.

For all of the much-deserved glory the 49ers defense gets, the offense has contributed to the success the Niners have enjoyed this season, as well. If they didn’t put up points, the defense would spend more time on the field.

There seems to be never-ending chatter about how Garoppolo needs to prove himself and earn his pay, but critics must not be paying attention. He became the first quarterback to ever take an 0-10 team on a five-game winning streak when he came to the 49ers in 2017.

He started that streak on one week’s worth of preparation with a head coach whose notoriously complex playbook rattles the minds of even the most accomplished quarterbacks. Sure, Garoppolo was out with an injury for most of 2018, so there wasn’t much to see there.

With a broader sample size, however, let’s pump the breaks and see what he’s accomplished:

Jimmy G is 25-5 as a starter, he’s 5-1 against the spread versus playoff teams, he’s been to and won two Super Bowls, and he’s proven more than capable of keeping up in shootouts against the best quarterbacks in the league.

That includes Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints, Jared Goff of the L.A. Rams, Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks, and Aaron Rodgers.

Bottom line: Garoppolo can get it done.

Plus, Jimmy G has the supporting cast to thrive. The addition of veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders has done wonders for Garoppolo’s passing game:

WITH Sanders: 254 yards / 3 games over 300 yards /21 touchdowns / 106.2 passer rating

WITHOUT Sanders: 219 yards / 0 games over 300 yards / 7 touchdowns / 90.8 passer rating

On top of that, Garoppolo has up-and-coming rookie receiver Deebo Samuel, eclectic receiver Kendrick Bourne, and arguably the best tight end in football: George Kittle. It’s hard to imagine success won’t follow with this group.

On the flip side, the matchup is almost a dream come true. Garoppolo will likely pick on Packers cornerback Kevin King, who will line up against Samuel. King is one of the more underwhelming corners in the league, and Samuel is a fearless, physical receiver who doesn’t quit.

While you can never completely write off Rodgers and his talented Packers, there are enough signs pointing to a 49ers victory this weekend. There is a real and present Rodgers regression occurring; the 49ers’ defense is lethal; and the 49ers’ offense is loaded with talent.

Super Bowl LIV is well within reach, but the 49ers need to play smart, limit the penalties and mistakes, mind their assignments, and smash it!

They have all of the building blocks they need to hoist a sixth Lombardi trophy.

Brick by brick.  One more game.  Can you feel it?