Packers vs. 49ers: Winning the run game key in NFC Championship

The San Francisco 49ers host the Green Bay Packers for the 2020 NFC Championship game, and whichever team has a better run game likely advances to the Super Bowl.

There isn’t much of a difference in context for the San Francisco 49ers when they host the visiting Green Bay Packers for the 2020 NFC Championship game at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday.

Just like their one-sided win over the Minnesota Vikings in the divisional round, the Niners understand that establishing the run game early, while preventing their opponent from doing the same, is going to be crucial to advancing in the playoffs.

San Francisco did a great job of this a week ago, rushing for a total of 186 yards and 4.0 yards per carry, while holding the Vikings to just 21 yards on 10 attempts.

Not much should change for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad against the Packers.

Like the Vikings, the Packers operate as a run-first offense. First-year head coach Matt LaFleur, a Shanahan protégé, has implemented more of a balanced offensive attack.

He’s taken away the heavy passing numbers from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and subsequently making running back Aaron Jones a household name.

Out of the 1,020 offensive plays Green Bay ran during the regular season, 411 of them were via the run (40.1 percent), up considerably from 32.5 percent the year before under then-head coach Mike McCarthy.

Interestingly enough, both the 49ers and Packers’ offensive lines rank in the top 10 in terms of run support, per Football Outsiders. According to their metrics, Green Bay is sixth; the Niners, eighth.

Defending against the run also presents an interesting stat. The 49ers finished the year having allowed 4.5 rush yards per carry, which ranked 23rd, while the Packers were slightly behind at 4.7 yards per rush, 24th.

Per Football Outsiders, though, the defenses are starkly different. San Francisco’s run defense boasts a DVOA of minus-12.1, good for 11th in the NFL, while Green Bay is 23rd with a DVOA of minus-0.8.

For San Francisco, establishing the run—be it with running backs Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert or Matt Breida—is crucial for two key factors. First, it keeps Rodgers and his always-dangerous Hall of Fame-level abilities off the field longer, while also resting the 49ers’ own defense.

Second, it also negates the prowess of Green Bay’s top two pass-rushers: Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith, who combined for 25 sacks during the regular season.

Coleman is likely the favorite to both start and get the bulk of carries for San Francisco on Sunday. It’ll be hard for Shanahan to limit him, especially after Coleman managed 105 rush yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings.

That said, Mostert’s hot finish to the regular season could also mean that he’ll receive a good deal of snaps, should Coleman struggle picking up chunk yards early in the game.

Either way, the formula is simple for San Francisco: Limit Jones, while getting Coleman and/or Mostert producing early and often.

Whoever gets the ground game going the best likely winds up representing the conference in Super Bowl LIV.