Breaking down 49ers playoff situation after Week 16 win vs. Rams

The San Francisco 49ers just won a game against the Los Angeles Rams that is crucial to their playoff hopes. Now that the Niners have won, let’s take a look at their current playoff situation.

The San Francisco 49ers just pulled out a huge, exciting and stressful win against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 16, coming away with a 34-31 victory in which the Niners seemed to be in perfect position to lose for much of the night.

This win was huge, and not just because it officially eliminated the Rams from playoff contention. This game has huge implications for how the 49ers playoff situation will shake out.

Let’s break it down in detail.

First, let’s explain why a Niners win tonight was so crucial. The 49ers clinched a playoff spot last week when the Rams lost to the Dallas Cowboys. Yet the reason this game was so important is because, while the 49ers have clinched a spot in the playoffs, they have not yet won their division, as the Seattle Seahawks are still fighting with the 49ers to win their division, the NFC West.

Because of how NFL Playoff seeding works, if the Niners do not win the division, they will be the fifth seed in the playoffs. However, if they do win the division, the Niners will be the one seed in the playoffs. Simple enough.

The one seed means home-field advantage and a Round 1 bye in the playoffs. The fifth seed means the Niners will likely be on the road the entire postseason, and will have to play an additional game. Along with the home-field advantage, a bye week could allow this injury-riddled San Francisco team a much needed chance to get healthy.

Plus, historically, most Super Bowl-winning teams come from squads which had a bye week. And logically, playing one less game in the postseason means you have one less chance to lose.

Clearly, the Niners winning the NFC West and getting the one seed will have a huge positive boost in their postseason outlook.

So, how do the Niners get this one seed? It’s quite simple: Beat the Seahawks next Sunday in Week 17. That’s it. The Niners are lucky enough to control their own destiny, and now that they have beaten the Rams, they can do so by beating the  Seahawks next Sunday at 1:25 p.m. PT.

Unfortunately, even if the Seahawks lose to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16, due to the complex NFL playoff tiebreaker system, the Niners will still have to beat the Seahawks in order to win the division.

The Seahawks, however, could fall as far as to the three seed if they lose to the Cardinals tomorrow and beat the Niners. But the Niners’ path is clear: Beat the Seahawks, win the division and have the one seed in the NFC Playoffs.

However, if the Niners lose to the Seahawks, they will be the five seed in the playoffs. That means they will play the fourth seed, the division winner with the worst record, which will be the winner of the NFC East. That will be either the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys. After running some scenarios through ESPN’s playoff machine, it’s possible to figure out what will make the 49ers play which team.

Conveniently, the Cowboys and the Eagles play Sunday in Week 16. If the Cowboys win, the 49ers will play the Cowboys in the playoffs, assuming the Niners get the No. 5 seed.. It does not matter what happens in the Cowboys and Eagles’ Week 17 games if the Cowboys win this Sunday. If the Cowboys beat the Eagles and the 49ers lose to the Seahawks next Sunday, the Niners and the Cowboys will face off in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

However, there is a scenario in which the Niners play the Eagles in that round as well. If the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Week 16 and beat the New York Giants in Week 17, then the Niners will be facing the Eagles in the Wild Card round, if they lose to the Seahawks.

Additionally, if the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Week 16 and lose to the Giants, while the Cowboys lose to the Washington Redskins in Week 17, the Niners will be seeing the Eagles. However, if the Eagles beat the Cowboys in Week 16, but then lose to the Giants while the Cowboys beat the Redskins, the Niners will be traveling to Dallas.

See, that’s not too complex, right?

Ideally, the Niners will not have to worry about any of these complex scenarios. If they can just beat the Seahawks next weekend, they will be sitting out the first week of the playoffs, and then playing the worst NFC team remaining after Wild Card weekend. And to sum it up as simply as possible, if they lose to the Seahawks, they will be playing either the Cowboys or the Eagles. One thing is certain, though, whomever the 49ers face in the postseason, that team won’t be ready for what’s coming for them.