Rams vs. 49ers predictions and odds: Finding value in this NFC West showdown
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Rams at 49ers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: 49ers -6.5
- Over/Under: 45
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NFL Network
What a difference a year makes.
This time in 2018, the Los Angeles Rams were marching toward an NFC championship while the San Francisco 49ers were wrapping their fourth-straight losing season. Now the 49ers are among the top contenders for the conference while the Rams are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in with slim chances of returning to the postseason.
With the situation in mind, where’s the betting value on Saturday night’s matchup? Our experts make their picks and preview the game.
Rams-49ers Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Rams
Greg Zuerlein was added to the Rams’ report with a quad injury. Cornerback Troy Hill, meanwhile, had surgery this week to repair a broken thumb, but he’s still trying to play against the 49ers. He would be a welcome presence as Pro Football Focus’ No. 12 overall cornerback.
Gerald Everett returned to practice with his knee injury, but Tyler Higbee has been so effective in his absence that there’s no telling what Everett’s usage would look like if he is active.
The 49ers are getting a little bit healthier with Richard Sherman (hamstring) and K’Wuan Williams (concussion) returning to full practice this week. However, safety Jaquiski Tartt (ribs) and edge defender Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) remain absent. Jared Goff is a mess under pressure, so having Ford back in the lineup would be helpful. However, they still have a solid pass rush even without him. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of late Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
49ers Defensive Line vs. Rams Offensive Line
One of the main reasons the Rams have been so up-and-down this season is their fate depends on how their offensive line matches up to an opponent in a given week.
Against teams like Seattle and Arizona — which rank 27th and 30th, respectively, in pressure rate — the Rams have rolled. But against more formidable units like the Steelers or these very Niners, we’ve seen the Rams offense go AWOL.
Goff struggles in the face of pressure behind an offensive line that currently features only one starter (Andrew Whitworth) who has earned a pass-blocking grade from PFF that ranks higher than 46th at their respective position.
The 49ers, meanwhile, boast a talented stable of top-15 defensive linemen in Nick Bosa (sixth), Arik Armstead (12th) and De’Forest Bucker (14th). Despite blitzing at the league’s fourth-lowest rate (19.8%), the 49ers’ 28.5% pressure rate ranks fourth-highest.
According to our Bet Labs data, the Rams are 8-4 against the spread coming off a loss under Sean McVay, including a 4-1 mark this season. Their one ATS loss? A 20-7 straight-up defeat at the hands of the 49ers. Per PFF, the 49ers pressured Goff on 13-of-28 dropbacks (46%) in that game, on which he completed 2-of-9 passes for 12 yards while taking four sacks. — Chris Raybon
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Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: 49ers -6.5
- Projected Total: 45
The market has been very lopsided on this spread with 79% of tickets and 89% of the money coming in on the 49ers as of writing (see live public betting data here). I don’t see any reason to go against the market here as it’s never a good idea to back Goff and the Rams when matched up against a team that generates pressure, and the 49ers currently rank fourth as they generate pressure at a rate of 28.5% on the season.
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers gave up 12 points to the Falcons in the final two minutes of last week’s double-digit upset, so we shouldn’t put too much stock in that 29-22 final score. I would say the market did a good job of overlooking that and has settled on a sharp line that I don’t see value either way.
This is a pass for me. — Sean Koerner
Koerner is 158-119-2 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
PRO System Match
Since 2003, the under is 838-741-29 (53.1%) in division games. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment.
It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.
Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,755 following this strategy.
More than 60% of tickets are on the over, but history suggests the smart play is the under. — John Ewing
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Under 45
We should get focused efforts from both defenses after embarrassing losses last week. And the Rams still haven’t forgot about the shellacking they suffered in the first meeting with the 49ers earlier this season.
Ultimately, I think both defenses matchup very well with the opposing offenses.
Let’s start with when the Rams have the ball.
The first factor you should weigh is: Can the opponent pressure the quarterback? If the answer is no (see when Los Angeles plays Seattle), then the offense looks fine. If the answer is yes, then the Rams offense essentially falls apart as Goff needs a clean pocket to operate since he lacks mobility and possesses a very mechanical throwing motion.
Well, the 49ers can get pressure as well as any team in the NFL, ranking first in adjusted sack rate. And they can do so simply with the production of their defensive line without having to blitz, which obviously also benefits the secondary, which should be much healthier with Sherman and Williams expected back.
Goff — one of six quarterbacks who have been under pressure at least 200 times this season — has six touchdowns and six interceptions with a 42.4% completion percentage when under pressure.
When these teams met earlier this season, Goff finished 13-of-24 for 78 yards while the Rams collectively rushed for 165 total yards at only 3.3 yards per rush. The 49ers went into a shell on offense once they got a lead as the staff just knew the Rams weren’t going to get anything going on offense. I’m not sure how much more you can expect this time around as the 49ers pressure should disrupt everything once again.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense grades out as legit with one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. Keep an eye on Hill, who is one of the most underrated corners this season. Hill, Jalen Ramsey and Nickell Robey-Coleman — one of the best slot corners in the NFL — make up a very formidable secondary that can shut down the 49ers wide receivers.
Plus, Aaron Donald and Co. are stout against the run, ranking in the top 10 in yards per rush and sixth in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA. That’s obviously important against a rush-heavy 49ers offense.
I think both defenses will shine in this late-season divisional rematch, so give me the under at anything 45 or higher.
Stuckey is 312-251-8 (55.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.