49ers Jimmy Garoppolo’s path to NFL Comeback Player of the Year

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo opened as the betting favorite to win the NFL AP Comeback Player of the Year award. Let’s take a look at what would have to happen for him to win it.

Every year, various awards are given out at the annual NFL Honors ceremony. While the most prominent of those awards is the NFL MVP, another one is the NFL AP Comeback Player of the Year award.

And of course, because people love to gamble, you can bet on who will win this award.

Here are the odds, with the San Francisco 49ers own, Jimmy Garoppolo, as the favorite:

So, what would have to happen this season for Garoppolo to win the award? First, let’s look at the past couple years’ award winners in order to see what a winning season looks like.

The winner of the most recent Comeback Player of the Year award was former Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck. Although, I’m sure Colts fans would love for him to be a “comeback” player again this year. Get it? Because he retired and now they want him to “come back”?

Luck returned after sitting out the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury. He finished the season with the best completion percentage of his career, throwing for 39 touchdowns, making the Pro Bowl and leading his team to a 10-6 record and the NFL playoffs. Additionally, he played in all 16 games of the season.

The previous season, 2017, Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen won the award. In the 2016 season, Allen tore his ACL in the Chargers’ season opener and missed the entire year. On his way to winning the award in 2017, Allen bounced back from his injury, finishing with 1,393 receiving yards and six touchdowns, making the Pro Bowl and seeing his team to the playoffs.

Looking at the past two seasons of award winners, there are two things they have in common: both players made the Pro Bowl and were on teams which made it to the playoffs. Since Garoppolo is a quarterback, looking at Luck’s stats can provide a nice reference point as well. So, if Garoppolo can throw somewhere upwards of 30 touchdowns, make the Pro Bowl and lead the 49ers to the playoffs, he should have a solid chance of winning the award.

The other thing that will stand in his way is his competition. After Garoppolo, the player with the best odds to win the award is the new New York Jets running back, Le’Veon Bell. However, Bell doesn’t really fit the bill for Comeback Player of the Year since he’s not coming back from injury, but rather from holding out in an attempt to get a new contract.

That doesn’t seem like something old, established sportswriters are big fans of, and that’s who votes on the award.

Maybe I’m wrong, but I just can’t see Bell getting the votes, regardless of the season he has. Additionally, it has been nearly 20 years since a running back won the award. That also counts against the chances of the next most likely favorite, Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons.

Realistically, if Garoppolo puts together the right numbers, it shouldn’t really matter what the competition does. He has the best chance to win the award because he has the best storyline. A prominent, talented, up-and-coming quarterback who was taken out of a season with a major injury. There isn’t necessarily anyone else in the league who fits the bill for that. While plenty of quarterbacks struggled with injuries over the past season, none were out for as much of the year as Garoppolo.

The biggest obstacle in Garoppolo’s way is Garoppolo. As stated before, Garoppolo will likely have to lead the Niners to the playoffs, throw over 30 touchdowns and make the Pro Bowl if he wants to win the award. If he does this, there isn’t anyone who has a better comeback story than him this season, unless much maligned quarterback Johnny Manziel returns and somehow goes to the Pro Bowl.

So, can he do this?

That really is the question. He certainly has the offensive weapons. As long as the 49ers offensive line can keep him protected, he should have plenty of opportunity to succeed this season. It all comes down to Garoppolo. If he really is a franchise quarterback, the savior of the Niners, the bane of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, then him winning Comeback Player of the Year should be one of the safest bets ever.

But, is he actually a star QB? We’ll just have to wait and see.