Fantasy football: DFS lineup strategy for 49ers’ third preseason game

Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Francisco 49ers return to Arrowhead for Week 3 of the preseason. These are the players poised to make a DFS impact on game night tonight at 8 p.m. ET.

The setup

This should be an exciting game. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo leads the San Francisco 49ers back to the scene of the accident in Kansas City after an uninspired performance in Denver earlier this week.

This is big. Huge. This is like, Luke Skywalker leading the rebels during the Battle of Yavin as they take on the Death Star. This is the second attempt at a sixth Lombardi Trophy after getting hopes decimated at Arrowhead early last season.

I’ve compared Garoppolo film from the Week 2 preseason game with his five strong starts late in 2017 when he first joined the Niners. The bottom line: today Jimmy G looks uncomfortable getting to the top of his drop back and hesitates on the plant.

The result: a 1-of-6 completion stat line with no yards.

Sure, the Denver Broncos brought pressure. The brace is difficult to negotiate. The offensive line was a sieve. But Garoppolo needs to get out of his own headspace if he’s to perform tonight against the Chiefs. That’s the key.

Everyone on the team is looking to him to set the tone, to lead. He needs that 2017 swag back. When that happens tonight, it’ll pay significant dividends when the regular season starts.

But it won’t be easy.

The odds

Bovada has the Niners as 4.5 point road dogs.  The Over/Under is 45, so it should be a high-scoring affair favoring the Chiefs, so our defense will need to step up and avoid penalties.

Dan Hanzus of NFL Network ranks K.C. as a top-four offense.  With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes on tap, 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will have his hands full.

The bright spot: FantasyPros ranks the K.C. defense near the bottom 10. That’s the reactor core head coach Kyle Shanahan will need to exploit.

The problem?

The Niners’ firepower (except for tight end George Kittle) is not yet proven, at least not with a healthy Garoppolo under center. There are a lot of question marks.

The hope is the 49ers offense can come together tonight in hostile territory.

The strategy

What does this mean for fantasy purposes?

It all hinges on playtime. Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News reports Garoppolo will be in for the first half on Saturday.

That’s a significant increase from the woeful 11 snaps Garoppolo took in Denver. Expect backup quarterback contender Nick Mullens to see increased reps in the second half tonight. If you really wanna roll the dice, go with Jimmy G.

Kittle is recovering from a calf injury, so I would be surprised to see the top-three TE fantasy option out there tonight. Tight end Levine Toilolo might be a healthy scratch due to shoulder surgery, so Kaden Smith and Ross Dwelley are your best bets.

If the Niners are to keep up with the Chiefs, they will have to unleash running backs Tevin Coleman and Matt Beida, with the latter offering the most value against a 31st ranked run defense.

The same can be said for the wide receiver torpedoes the 49ers have on hand against K.C.’s 25th ranked pass defense. Tonight we’ll see if Garoppolo can revive his hook-up with Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne, establish comfort with Dante Pettis and spark a flame with rookies Deebo Samuel or Jalen Hurd. Take your pick.

Avoid the 49ers defense tonight!  Just don’t play them.

Jimmy G will need to fire more than a few proton torpedoes into K.C.’s reactor core if we’re to see any fireworks and restore a new hope for this season.