Between two eras: Will the 49ers next great resurgence come in 2019?

After 10 years without a playoff berth, the San Francisco 49ers contended for three consecutive NFC Championships under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Entering their third season together at the helm, have Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch put the right pieces in place to dominate in 2019?

A decade removed from its last winning season and two weeks shy of a handshake that will live in infamy, then-head coach Jim Harbaugh’s 2011 edition of the San Francisco 49ers showed signs of life. Trailing a Michael Vick-led Philadelphia Eagles squad 23-3 midway through the third quarter, Harbaugh’s men first demonstrated the resilience that, in the years to come, would lead them to the very precipice of dynasty.

Three possessions behind and well aware of the fact, swamped and silenced by that gleeful rancor so unique to Philadelphia crowds, quarterback Alex Smith and wide receiver Josh Morgan managed to connect for a touchdown. Star tight end Vernon Davis must have been inspired by the display, choosing the next drive for his first score of the young season. Running back Frank Gore, never to be outdone, made his own six-point contribution toward bridging the gap two possessions later.

Suddenly the protector of a single-point lead in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter, it would become the prerogative of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to remind us which side of the ball actually wins championships.

Facing 2nd-and-5 from midfield, Vick evaded the outstretched arms of EDGE Aldon Smith to find wide receiver Jeremy Maclin in the flat. The fleet-footed receiver was content to follow an armada of well-schemed blockers to the promised land, conscious all the while that the two-minute warning was fast approaching and a field goal would drive a nail into the visiting 49ers’ coffin.

Thirty-two years old and flirting with 300 pounds, resident ‘Cowboy’ Justin Smith chased the receiver deep into field-goal range and justified his nickname by wrangling possession of the ball.

Game over.

It was an iconic moment. It was a bold departure from the miserable perpetuity of losing seasons and undelivered promises. It was the precipice of dynasty.

We know now, of course, that that precipice would crumble in the 2015 offseason. We know that the resultant fall from grace would be historic.

After reaching three consecutive NFC Championship games, an 8-8 record in 2014 seemed so intolerable a setback that ownership felt it incumbent upon themselves to uproot the Harbaugh regime at its foundations.

For frame of reference, the more agnostic forecasters among us might disregard any expectation for a .500 finish next season as being childishly optimistic.

For the crime of overseeing a single disappointing season, compounded no doubt by a brash personality known to all parties well before his first interview, Harbaugh was summarily dismissed. Unbeknownst to fans still reeling from the decision, the head coach’s departure was only the beginning of a cascade of losses, retirements and, to a smaller extent, arrests.

Common to space industry circles, rapid unscheduled disassembly is a euphemism for the explosion or otherwise catastrophic failure of a rocket. I would argue that the phrase has an equally valid place in football parlance, at least since the 2015 offseason.

Fans said farewell to Aldon Smith, offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. Gore, Justin Smith and the great linebacker, Patrick Willis, were showered in well wishes and thanked for all the memories. Even unexpected retiree, linebacker Chris Borland, can be presumed to have received dozens of “get well soon” cards in the mail.

We can spend all day, or five years, ruminating over the needless forfeit of a potential dynasty. Perhaps, though, it would be more prudent to try and learn something from the successes, and eventual rapid unscheduled disassembly, of the Harbaugh experiment.

What did Harbaugh do that his post-Steve Mariucci predecessors didn’t? How does the roster this offseason differ from the roster Harbaugh had at his disposal heading into 2011? What made the 49ers so good? Critically, can now-head coach Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers do it, too?

Yes. Well, maybe.

Comparing the Coaching Staffs of the Two Eras

Any 49ers fan with a television understands that no team is more than an ACL tear or three away from “well, there’s always next season.”

Devastating, soul-sucking injuries aside, the argument can certainly be made that 2019 is the season this team finally picks up where Harbaugh’s team left off.

Such a claim may well seem absurd, or even needlessly provocative, given the 47 losses the franchise has accrued in the post-Harbaugh era. It is not lost on me that the burden of proof is mine. So, to demonstrate why next season may well be remembered as the 49ers’ second great resurgence, we’ll need to assess key elements of the team as it was entering into 2011 and compare them to the present.

Disclaimer: I was in diapers when Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young “got the monkey off his back.” Throughout my developmental years, I was exposed to the likes of quarterback Tim Rattay and running back Kevin Barlow in high doses.

Abounding optimism was a matter of survival.

Ask New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick where success comes from in the NFL. If you survive long enough to get a genuine answer, I’ve no doubt it will be something along the lines of, “from the top.”

So it was in 2011. As Stanford University’s top man, Harbaugh transformed a program that managed just one win the season prior to his arrival into a fourth-ranked, Orange Bowl-winning, quarterback Andrew Luck-producing powerhouse. That was how Harbaugh left them when he departed for greener turf in the NFL, answering the beck and call of a 49ers franchise desperate for a similar upheaval of fortune.

Needless to say, they got it.

Following the hire, Stanford compatriots Greg Roman and Fangio were appointed by Harbaugh to serve as offensive and defensive coordinator, respectively. Roman’s run-happy style complemented Harbaugh’s hard-nosed ideology well, and Fangio — now head coach in Denver with the Broncos — needs little introduction.

Together, the trio orchestrated three dominant campaigns; thrice reaching the NFC Championship, and once the Super Bowl.

Twenty-four hours before being proclaimed the new head coach of the 49ers, Shanahan was party to a Super Bowl of his own. The Atlanta Falcons offense was the most productive in the NFL that 2016 season; a milestone, due in no small part to Shanahan’s well-known strategic brilliance. That brilliance is so well known, in fact, that he was ordained NFL Assistant Coach of the Year for his involvement.

The Super Bowl did not end well for the Falcons, and many are quick to blame Shanahan’s aggressive play calling. Famously, his refusal to press the brakes and drain the clock contributed to Atlanta’s squandering of a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.

I fundamentally disagree with most criticisms of Shanahan’s approach to that game. Explosive, dynamic offense was the cornerstone of his team’s success that season, and he as coordinator was right to forego standard game-management protocol and lean on what got them to the Super Bowl to begin with.

Imagine, instead, if he’d elected to press those breaks when the lead was just 21-3; the argument deserves to be made that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady’s miracle comeback would only have occurred sooner, and less miraculously.

That said, how do Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh stack up against Harbaugh’s 2011 coaching triumvirate?

The jury is still very much out on Saleh. Records from the Pro Football Reference catacombs do not bode well for the former Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars assistant coach. As defensive czar in 2017 and 2018, his group was bogged twice in the NFL tar pits, finishing 25th and 28th in the critically important points-allowed category.

Fangio, meanwhile, achieved second overall in that category through both of his first two seasons. Where Fangio had the likes of Willis, NaVorro Bowman and the Justin Smith and Aldon Smith tandem to stall opposing offenses well short of pay dirt, Fangio’s sustained success since leaving the 49ers suggests that, regardless of personnel, his coaching acumen wins out over the presiding defensive coordinator.

What of the offense? Productivity, in terms of yardage, is split somewhat evenly between the two regimes. The disparity is better revealed in terms of points, where Shanahan’s offense ranked around 20th in his first two seasons — a considerable drop from Roman’s dual 11th-ranked campaigns.

Statistics don’t lie. Nor do they tell the whole truth. Put Belichick in command of the Alabama Crimson Tide, give him a venue of his choice and a full offseason to whip them into shape, and a winless 2008 Detroit Lions team would defeat them handily in 10 bouts out of 10. Success starts at the top, but it doesn’t end there. A coach or coordinator can only strive to be as successful as his worst player.

So, to qualify the argument that the 49ers stand any chance at all of invoking the Harbaugh days to surprise the league in 2019, let’s consider which position groups on the current roster, if any, can hope to match or exceed their predecessors.

Comparing the Two 49ers Rosters

All hail the quarterback.

Although success largely eluded Alex Smith until late in his 49ers career, 2011 saw the much-maligned former No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick settle into his own. A six-season spanning carousel of coordinators had done him no favors, but Harbaugh and Roman tailored offensive game plans to maximize his skill set and minimize his deficits.

After half a decade being called much worse, “game manager” became the favored, if subtle, derogation levied against Smith. Relatively low yardage and touchdown outputs were offset by exceptional accuracy and interception totals that never again surpassed single digits.

With a Spartan phalanx for an offensive line, a future Hall of Famer for a running back and a defense that held opposing offenses to just over 14 points per contest, why play for fantasy points when you can manage your way to 13 wins?

Shanahan’s new franchise quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, never had to grapple with that question. Garoppolo’s arrival came in the midst of a losing streak, the likes of which had never been seen in San Francisco. A game manager wouldn’t do. Shanahan’s 49ers were in the business of procuring a game changer. If the five-week win streak that carried them into the 2018 offseason is any indication, they found him.

It is difficult to blame fans and neutral observers alike for anticipating the 49ers’ next resurgence to haven taken place last year. It seemed purely a consequence of Garoppolo’s presence that a downtrodden one-win team was to be so abruptly transformed into a force to be reckoned with. Everyone was willing to forgive the quarterback’s one-interception-per-contest habit as something of a charming quirk, so long as the game ended in victory.

If Garoppolo was under center in 2017, they inevitably did.

Intrigue over the new starter’s mysterious aversion to losing games came to an end against the Minnesota Vikings at the dawn of the 2018 season. From that time forward, Garoppolo, like Smith before him, would be subject to criticism in many forms. After two comparatively sub-par outings to start the regular season, his comeback attempt against the future AFC Championship-contending Kansas City Chiefs ended in a season-ending ACL tear.

Any meaningful analysis of the quarterback’s productivity as a factor of his potential were to be tabled another year.

Needless to say, the main fault ascribed to Garoppolo is not a matter of potential — a thing he has in obvious abundance — but in demonstrable success. Two starts in New England and eight in San Francisco, in the view of many, do not an elite quarterback make. In his eight starts as a 49er he’s amassed 11 touchdowns to eight interceptions, an average completion percentage of 63.5 percent, 2,278 passing yards and, most critically, six wins to two losses.

Smith, meanwhile, had several seasons of continuous play under his belt by 2011. Harbaugh may have been riling him up before kickoff every week, but make no mistake, Smith had a ceiling, and that ceiling was well known to his head coach. For Garoppolo, the sky is the limit. His potential was worthy of a briefly record-holding contract, and from an analytical perspective, it is worthy of the edge over Smith.

It is the view of many that, after the quarterback position, a team’s success rests most heavily upon the quality of its defensive line. It’s no wonder that, between 2015 and 2017, the 49ers front office dedicated the 17th, seventh and third overall picks to bolstering that position group. A well-regarded trade this offseason saw former Kansas City Chiefs pressure machine, Dee Ford, join the ranks of Arik Armstead, Solomon Thomas and established star Deforest Buckner on the defensive side of the eternal scrum.

There is even some chatter among in-the-know pundits the 49ers may be eyeing a certain Ohio State defensive end at No. 2 overall in the upcoming draft. Such an addition would certify the 49ers defensive line as the envy of the league, although it’s all speculation and you didn’t hear it from me.

How does the defensive line, in its current form, compare with the likes of Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, Ray McDonald and Aldon Smith? Only time and an April 25 announcement by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will truly tell.

As it stands, Buckner and Ford are the only proven championship-caliber commodities. Armstead has come into his own, improving in bounds since migrating inside after the selection of Thomas in the first round of the 2017 Draft. As for Thomas, a disappointing two-year audition has generated more questions than answers, more now than ever, especially if new defensive talent continues trickling in to crowd the roster.

Barring a series of devastating injuries, the Niners already reputable defensive line should continue to show improvement in 2019 and beyond. Ford and Buckner will keep offenses puzzling over which man to double team well after the game is decided and they’ve boarded the flight home. Add a disruptive rookie with a deservedly famous last name to the mix and, well, suffice it to say that the 2018 horrid turnover ratio won’t be quite so bleak in San Francisco again.

A dominant defensive front is like a sports car. If you pay enough, and you’re able to keep it running, any glaring faults in your personality suddenly don’t seem like such a big deal.

In 2011, the 49ers boasted, perhaps, the best inside linebacker duo in the history of professional football.

Fred Warner looked promising as a rookie, and a healthy Kwon Alexander can be a game changer in his own right, but nobody is prepared to compare them to the dynamic duo that was Willis and Bowman. At the risk of having my mental faculties called into question, however, I am willing to assert that a defensive line forged in brimstone and fire, much like a fancy car, can help disguise the inequities. The same can be said for defensive backs.

Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson were key building blocks of a secondary that was really fun to watch. Most exciting of all was the unbelievable plus-28 turnover differential they contributed to in 2011 — a figure that puts the minus-25 effort in 2018 into tragic perspective.

That 53-turnover swing is, perhaps, the toughest pill to swallow while endeavoring to imagine a positive outcome in 2019. Saleh’s group forced an abysmal seven turnovers last season to the 38 produced in 2011.

Above all else, that figure has to change. And fortunately for Saleh, there is something of a precedent.

The 2010 season, in terms of turnover differential, ended on a note of mediocrity, as had most years of then-head coach Mike Singletary’s tenure. San Francisco’s defense had forced one fewer turnover than its offense ultimately forfeited. When all was said and done for Singletary, it seemed that most of the roster that would come to dominate the NFC was already in place.

To what, then, can we attribute the vast improvements in turnover disparity after a single offseason?

Thirteen of the 29-turnover difference can be attributed to a newfound frugality in the 49ers offense under Harbaugh. With Alex Smith at the helm in 2011, the 49ers only ceded possession in that unceremonious way on 10 occasions — less than half as many as the season prior. Even at his current rate of just over one interception per start as a 49er, a full season with Garoppolo at the helm would shave four interceptions off last year’s sum. More important to either squad than stingy quarterbacks, though, is the presence of a disruptive new edge rusher.

The very first draft pick of the Harbaugh era, Aldon Smith took the league by storm. Despite quickly becoming a presence demanding of double teams, the defensive end accumulated 14 sacks and 27 quarterback hits his rookie year.

If you’re interested to know how those metrics translate to turnovers, Next Gen Stats affords us this extremely compelling parallel:

Ford’s presence will stir tremendous change for a 49ers defense that spent much of last season relearning how to tackle. A monster off the edge will change the dynamic of the game, constraining the schematic avenues available to opposing offenses. After all, with several defensive juggernauts liable to blow past a solo blocker without a moment’s notice, your running back can’t be expected to wait around in the flat as a check down option. And forget anything in your playbook that begins with a seven-step-drop. The pocket will crumble in five. Interceptions climb and accuracy plummets in direct proportion to the number of hands in a quarterback’s face and grass stains on his jersey.

A broader talent pool up front will ensure that fresh bodies are always in the mix, well rested enough, one would hope, to pursue quarterbacks relentlessly across four quarters. Or perhaps prevent the physical wear and tear that too often lends itself to more serious injury.

As Ford creates chaos at or behind the line of scrimmage, vulnerabilities in the 49ers secondary largely disappear. Shoring up your zone or sticking to your man becomes much less daunting a proposition. None of this, mind you, is to say that San Francisco is destitute of talent among defensive backs.

With any luck, perennial lockdown corner Richard Sherman will enter the season healthy. Starting opposite him will be the best of an increasingly competitive crop of corners, namely Jason Verrett, the promising, if injury prone, former Los Angeles Charger. As it was for the linebackers, this secondary may not be as dominant as Fangio’s turnover machine in 2011. Ford, Buckner and a common-sense draft pick will mean that they don’t need to be.

Back on the offensive side of the ball, there is equal cause for optimism and uncertainty. Swaths of skill positions still remain a relative unknown as the offseason ticks along.

In 2011, the backfield was Gore’s undisputed territory for good reason. Twelve-hundred yards and eight touchdowns that season was a healthy and typical bounty for, perhaps, the most consistent running back ever to play the sport.

In 2019, conversely, the 49ers seem intent on hosting a backfield split four ways.

To get a better sense of why Shanahan is leery of putting all his eggs in one basket, be sure to check out Jerick McKinnon’s stats last year.

In any case, between McKinnon, Matt Breida, newcomer Tevin Coleman and dynamic fullback Kyle Juszczyk, there is a preponderance of talent available behind the quarterback. That’s a good problem to have.

Wide receiver remains the most tenuous position group, and offers the fewest assurances to any returning player with intentions to keep their roster spot. As it currently stands, Garoppolo’s passes will be divvied up between incumbent speedster Marquise Goodwin, sophomore Dante Pettis, big-bodied former Philadelphia Eagle Jordan Matthews and, contingent upon the draft and their competitiveness at OTAs, slot specialist Trent Taylor, upward-trending Kendrick Bourne, and kick-returning Richie James.

The best receiver on the team, not unlike Davis way back when, is tight end George Kittle.

For all the uncertainty, the passing offense in 2019 may well exceed what Harbaugh, Smith, Davis, Michael Crabtree and a litany of virtual unknowns achieved eight long years ago. Offensively speaking, Shanahan has the strategic acuity to accentuate the strengths of his roster, of which there just may be many.

With Garoppolo back at the reigns, Goodwin stretching the field and an eager Matthews, Bourne or unnamed rookie converting red-zone trips into points, the possibility remains Kittle won’t be the only pass catcher exceeding expectations.

Offensive line is a question mark, if ever there was one. That was not the case for Harbaugh. As it was for most position groups on the roster he inherited, the big men up front were already ripe for success by the time of his arrival. Iupati and Anthony Davis were both drafted in the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft. Alongside left tackle Joe Staley, the sophomore linemen provided ample running lanes to be exploited by Gore in accordance with Roman’s downhill philosophy.

At present, Staley remains the beloved linchpin of that group — a rough and rowdy veteran, productive for more than a decade, all the while clinging to hope that next year is our year. A lesser known element of Staley’s job is keeping the left tackle position warm for right tackle Mike McGlinchey.

The 49ers’ latest first-round draft pick shadowed the elder Staley. Their personal association is the subject of hilarity, and also a clear demonstration of either man’s character in the context of a successful football team.

Counter-intuitive as it may seem, it is only natural that McGlinchey — enthusiastic, ambitious, eager to learn — would gravitate toward Staley — 34 years old, experienced, hardened by lost seasons and squandered opportunities. Staley is the longest-tenured player on the Niners, present for the transition from immovable mediocrity, to fleeting greatness and tragic collapse.

It remains to be seen how many more campaigns the left tackle is willing or able to undertake before he hangs the jersey up for good, but it’s certain that he has lofty ambitions for how he means to spend them. I have no doubt that part of what keeps him going is a deep commitment to the only professional franchise he has ever belonged to, and an instinct to guide the harbingers of its future in the direction of success he finally tasted between 2011 and 2013.

What else keeps him going? I’d wager that he can already see the signs. Success is coming, and he intends to be around for it.