Niner Noise
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2019 NFL Draft: History suggests a 49ers trade down is imminent

By Jeremy Wohlfart

CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 28: (L-R) Carson Wentz of the North Dakota State Bison holds up a jersey with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being picked #2 overall by the Philadelphia Eagles during the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University on April 28, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 28: (L-R) Carson Wentz of the North Dakota State Bison holds up a jersey with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being picked #2 overall by the Philadelphia Eagles during the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University on April 28, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) /
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With reports that the New York Jets wish to trade down from pick No. 3, the San Francisco 49ers may follow suit. Niner Noise hit upon a little bit of recent draft history that could support this.

One of the several ways the San Francisco 49ers can use their 2019 NFL Draft pick at No. 2 overall is to trade down with a quarterback-needy team. It certainly makes sense, as the team only possesses six selections in the draft.

Trading down makes sense for a lot of teams in the early picks of the draft. Reports are already circulating that the New York Jets, currently picking right behind the Niners, are “highly motivated” to trade down.

Walter Football says (citing the rumor by Rich Cimini of ESPN):

"It makes sense for the Jets to move down. They don’t have a second-round pick because of last year’s deal to move up for Sam Darnold. Teams will have to pass the Giants to obtain the quarterback they prefer, while the Jets can address a position of need later on in the top 10."

This is a direct parallel to the 49ers, who need to address the defense and can easily do so later in the draft while accumulating picks.

How likely is it that San Francisco will have a suitor? Well, would you believe all but one quarterback taken in the first round from 2016 through 2018 was from a trade up?

  • Pick 1 (2016): Tennessee Titans to Los Angeles Rams (used to select Jared Goff)
  • Pick 2 (2016): Cleveland Browns to Philadelphia Eagles (used to select Carson Wentz)
  • Pick 26 (2016): Seattle Seahawks to Denver Broncos (used to select Paxton Lynch)
  • Pick 2 (2017): San Francisco 49ers to Chicago Bears (used to select Mitchell Trubisky)
  • Pick 10 (2017): Buffalo Bills to Kansas City Chiefs (used to select Patrick Mahomes)
  • Pick 12 (2017): Philadelphia Eagles to Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns, used to select Deshaun Watson)
  • Pick 1 (2018) Cleveland Browns select Baker Mayfield (no trade)
  • Pick 3 (2018) Indianapolis Colts to New York Jets (used to select Sam Darnold)
  • Pick 7 (2018) Tampa Bay Buccaneers to Buffalo Bills (used to select Josh Allen)
  • Pick 10 (2018) Oakland Raiders to Arizona Cardinals (used to select Josh Rosen)
  • Pick 32 (2018) Philadelphia Eagles to Baltimore Ravens (used to select Lamar Jackson)

An astonishing 10 from 11 quarterback selections in the first round, dating back to 2016, are a result of a team trading up.

There are quarterback-needy teams this year, and a very attractive pick from the 49ers to dangle. The 49ers can always defy recent history, of course, especially if the top guy on their big board is available.

But they also might find a big trade too much to refuse.

Next. 2019 NFL Draft: Two-round mock, NFL Scouting Combine version. dark

San Francisco’s top selection will be very attractive if the quarterbacks impress at the NFL Scouting Combine in early March, and desperate teams mean desperate deals.

Do not be surprised if the 49ers decide trading down is the way to go.