San Francisco 49ers: Breaking down the path to top pick in 2019 NFL Draft

The San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders are the only two-win teams remaining this deep into 2018, meaning the path to the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft just got easier.

If you’re a San Francisco 49ers fan hoping the 2-10 Niners land Ohio State EDGE Joey Bosa, widely viewed as the top prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft, you’re probably happy with the team’s 43-16 Week 13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday.

As ugly as it was, the loss further propels head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad towards landing Bosa.

Assuming that’s the pick, of course. And there’s little reason to assume otherwise.

Following their Week 13 loss, the 49ers’ chances to land the No. 1 overall pick in 2019 now increased to 58.8 percent, according to Football Outsiders. The Oakland Raiders, the NFL’s other two-win squad, boast chances of 23.2 percent.

It’s important to note head-to-head matchups don’t matter in determining draft order. So San Francisco’s Week 9 win over Oakland won’t make a difference aside from winning percentage.

The tiebreaker is opponents’ combined win percentage. And with the Niners losing to bad teams, like the Arizona Cardinals (twice) and New York Giants, it’s likely to be lower than anything the Raiders have to deal with this year.

We’ll know by the end of the season, but let’s look at both teams’ remaining schedules.

The Raiders aren’t likely to win another game this year, which doesn’t necessarily hurt the 49ers, although it doesn’t help either:

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/3/2018.

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have lost to games in a row. But they way overmatch Oakland. The New England Patriots too, obviously.

The Denver Broncos, whom the Niners play in Week 14, may not be the defensively dominant squad they were when they won Super Bowl 50. But they’re riding a three-game win streak, including impressive wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Steelers in Weeks 11 and 12, respectively.

Plus, at 6-6 and desperately clinging to playoff hopes, these two contests against the 49ers and Raiders are about as must win as it gets.

Unless the Kansas City Chiefs are in a position to rest their starters in Week 17, chalk that up as a loss for Oakland as well.

OK, now the 49ers’ schedule:

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/3/2018.

Perhaps San Francisco benefits from three of its remaining four games being at home. But considering those games are against defensively sound teams like the Broncos, Seahawks and Chicago Bears, it’s hard to see happening.

The 11-1 Los Angeles Rams are an interesting story. Last year, when Rams head coach Sean McVay had locked up everything he possibly could, he elected to rest his starters. The Niners went on to win 34-13 against L.A.’s B-team.

Los Angeles has a one-game lead over the 10-2 New Orleans Saints. And the Saints don’t exactly have a cakewalk schedule either, with two games against the scuffling Panthers but one on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and another against the Steelers.

Another loss could convince McVay, if his squad wins out between now and Week 16, to rest starters again against San Francisco.

So, if you’re hoping the 49ers land that No. 1 pick and are assuming the Raiders lose out, you’d better hope the Saints keep winning and stay one game behind L.A.

There’s your wild card for the Niners getting the top pick in 2019.