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49ers vs. Buccaneers: What to expect from Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston

By Peter Panacy

SANTA CLARA, CA - OCTOBER 23: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to playing the San Francisco 49ers in their NFL game at Levi's Stadium on October 23, 2016 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - OCTOBER 23: Jameis Winston #3 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers warms up prior to playing the San Francisco 49ers in their NFL game at Levi's Stadium on October 23, 2016 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will start embattled quarterback Jameis Winston when the San Francisco 49ers come to town in Week 12, and here’s what the Niners can expect.

It’s been a turbulent season for Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, who has seen his 2018 marked by a three-game suspension, high points, low points, being benched in favor of his backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and returning to starting duties once more.

And according to ESPN’s Jenna Laine, Winston will be the starter once more when the San Francisco 49ers visit Tampa Bay in Week 12.

Winston is throwing for a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio (8-to-12), which would mark the first time he’s done so over his four-year career. And his 80.3 passer rating also marks a career low.

All this, considering the fact Winston has two of the NFL’s best wide receivers at his disposal, Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.

That said, the Niners defense will still have its hands full when Winston takes the field. True, he’s been responsible for those eight picks along with five fumbles. But he’s also completing a career-high 65.9 percent of his passes.

And it isn’t as if the 49ers defense has been in lock-down mode this season.

The good news, however, is the majority of Winston’s passing success has come within 10 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. According to his pass-direction chart, his greatest success is coming between the numbers on attempts between zero and 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

Like many quarterbacks, however, Winston hasn’t fared well this season when facing pressure. Per PFF, his passer rating drops to 66.3 when facing such pressure, compared to 86.5 without it. Like the New York Giants’ Eli Manning, though, Winston is more than competent handling blitzes. His passer rating when facing five-plus pass-rushers is 103.0.

The 49ers have struggled to get regular pressure on quarterbacks all season long, particularly with four-man rushes. So, while defensive coordinator Robert Saleh might be tempted to call more blitzes, it might not be the best of options against a quarterback still not exactly thriving against a standard four-man rush.

This could be a problem, though, especially on third downs. According to Football Outsiders, using an ALEX (air less expected on third downs) metric, Winston is tossing an average of 3.2 yards beyond the sticks on this crucial conversion attempt. And his passer rating on this down is 94.3 — the highest of the first three downs.

San Francisco has been OK in allowing conversions on third down, ranking 11th in the league with opponents converting just under 38 percent of the time.

Yet if blitzes wind up being the only way the Niners can get pressure on Winston, things could get a bit problematic on third-down defensive stands.

The 49ers and Buccaneers square off on Sunday, Nov. 25 at 1 p.m. ET.

Next. 5 lineup predictions for the 49ers over the rest of 2018. dark

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