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49ers-Rams preview: Niners face NFC’s top offense, led by Todd Gurley and Jared Goff

By Chris Wilson

SANTA CLARA, CA - SEPTEMBER 21: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams is stopped short of the goal line by the San Francisco 49ers during their NFL game at Levi's Stadium on September 21, 2017 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SANTA CLARA, CA - SEPTEMBER 21: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams is stopped short of the goal line by the San Francisco 49ers during their NFL game at Levi's Stadium on September 21, 2017 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams preview
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Week 7 by the numbers

With 10 games remaining in the 2018 NFL regular season, the Los Angeles Rams appear to have locked up the NFC West, partially due to their exemplary play, and partially due to a lack of competition in the division.

Since the 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals enter Week 7 with identical 1-5 records, both teams are extremely unlikely to catch the current leaders of the NFC West. Los Angeles’ top competition this season is the 3-3 Seattle Seahawks, but the Rams already defeated in the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 5. A win today would give Los Angeles a 3-0 record within the division.

Football Outsiders currently gives the Rams a league-leading 95.1 percent chance to win the NFC West. FiveThirtyEight’s division-winning prediction for the Rams is a tad lower, at 91 percent.

The Los Angeles Rams are currently undefeated because their offense is arguably the best unit in the NFL. The Rams rank first in overall offense, second in passing offense and first in rushing offense — by a very large margin — per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Thanks to Gurley, who is averaging over 100 yards on the ground per game, the Rams lead the league in both total rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt. Los Angeles’ passing attack ranks third in total passing yards, due to Goff’s 9.1 net yards per pass attempt.

The Rams’ offense leads the league with 2,786 total yards and 7.2 yards per play, and has only turned the ball over six times during the 2018 season. Only the Chiefs have scored more points than the Rams, who average nearly 33 points per game.

If the Rams have a soft spot, it’s their defense, which has underwhelmed compared to offseason expectations. Los Angeles’ pass defense has been a mid-level unit so far this season, and their run defense ranks near the bottom of the league after allowing 4.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

If the 49ers expect to keep up with the high-flying Rams on Sunday, their offense needs to be able to move the ball consistently on the ground, while connecting on shots downfield through the air.