San Francisco 49ers: 3 worst-case scenarios for 2018

While the hype surrounding the San Francisco 49ers is very much real heading into 2018, Niner Noise plays “Negative Nancy” and looks at three worst-case scenarios instead.

If all goes well, the San Francisco 49ers will wind up a powerhouse behind quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and end up being a serious contender in 2018.

Perhaps even riding that momentum deep into the playoffs.

But what if it all goes wrong?

The window between wins and losses at the NFL level is fine. Very fine. A missed field goal, a turnover, missed tackle or even the ball bouncing the wrong way (it isn’t round, after all) could all turn a 10-plus win season into a sub-.500 campaign. Case in point, the Los Angeles Chargers missed a would-be game-winning field goal by former kicker YoungHoe Kim in Week 2 last year against the Miami Dolphins, resulting in a loss, which influenced a 9-7 record and cost a possible shot at a playoff berth.

Things could get worse too.

While it’s always fun to talk all the reasons why the Niners will be good this season, let’s flip the script a bit and focus on the negative things that could beset head coach Kyle Shanahan and Co. this season.

Injuries, of course, are the bane of all teams’ existence at the NFL level. And while this is a never-ending concern for teams like the 49ers, let’s not focus on that issue here. Instead, let’s look at some of the other factors.

Running Back Jerick McKinnon Under-Delivers

The 49ers brought in running back Jerick McKinnon on a lucrative four-year free-agent deal this offseason, all but handing him the starting duties in 2018.

It’s a front-loaded deal, which is good. If McKinnon doesn’t meet expectation levels, the Niners can cut bait after one year with relatively little consequence. But that’s not the hope here.

We’ve already broken down why we think McKinnon will be a superstar in Shanahan’s offense. Others, like KNBR 680’s Larry Krueger (h/t 49ers Webzone), think McKinnon will be putting up the kind of numbers worthy of a top fantasy player.

But McKinnon has never been placed into a featured role. And he’s never accounted for more than 570 rush yards in a single season. In fact, his 3.4 and 3.8 average yards per carry in 2016 and 2017, respectively, is notably down from the 4.8 yards-per-attempt average he had back in his rookie 2014 season.

Again, one shouldn’t expect this to happen. But if McKinnon’s efforts this season don’t pan out to desired levels, Shanahan’s balanced offense will wind up being very one-dimensional. And while Garoppolo’s on-field abilities could help make up for this, you’d like not see the same kind of performance most everyone is expecting from the team in 2018.

Simply put, the Niners offense would be OK. Not great.