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NFL Draft: Ranking the 5 most overrated prospects for 2018

By Peter Panacy

IOWA CITY, IOWA- SEPTEMBER 2: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Wyoming Cowboys warms up before the match-up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, on September 2, 2017 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images)
IOWA CITY, IOWA- SEPTEMBER 2: Quarterback Josh Allen #17 of the Wyoming Cowboys warms up before the match-up against the Iowa Hawkeyes, on September 2, 2017 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. (Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images) /
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GLENDALE, AZ – DECEMBER 30: Running back Saquon Barkley #26 of the Penn State Nittany Lions on the sidelines during the first half of the Playstation Fiesta Bowl against the Washington Huskies at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. The Nittany Lions defeated the Huskies 35-28. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
GLENDALE, AZ – DECEMBER 30: Running back Saquon Barkley #26 of the Penn State Nittany Lions on the sidelines during the first half of the Playstation Fiesta Bowl against the Washington Huskies at University of Phoenix Stadium on December 30, 2017 in Glendale, Arizona. The Nittany Lions defeated the Huskies 35-28. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

The No. 1 player on our list of overrated NFL Draft prospects doesn’t exactly deserve to be here because of a lack of abilities. Rather, it’s more because the position itself is simply ranked too high for consideration at the top of Round 1.

Penn State running back Saquon Barkley is a top-10 talent easily, perhaps in the top five. CBS Sports lists him at No. 6 overall, which makes sense when considering his game-changing talents.

Again, it’s nothing against Barkley to list him as overrated. It’s his position.

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Ten years ago, Barkley would have been a shoo-in as a top-five pick with great value. But the league has transformed into one focusing on the pass, not so much the running game. The days of a featured back carrying a team all the way to a Super Bowl victory have evaporated.

Another knock against Barkley being a top-10 selection is just how deep this year’s cast of runners is. Last year was similar too. Just ask Fourth and Nine’s Dylan DeSimone, after he compared the 2016 and 2017 NFL Draft’s first runners taken — Leonard Fournette and Ezekiel Elliott, respectively, compared to tailbacks taken later on during the draft:

"In 2016, everyone knew Ezekiel Elliott was head and shoulders above the rest of the class. In 2017, everyone knew Leonard Fournette was going to be the best running back, and no one would come close. Both coincidentally went No. 4 overall in their respective classes, and they’ve been major assets since arriving with their pro teams. But the best RB talent in college does not equate to the best RB success in the National Football League, and it certainly doesn’t mean they’re irreplaceable even as the effective backs they’ve become. … Fournette’s 2017 draft mates Dalvin Cook (second round, #41), Joe Mixon (second round, #48), Alvin Kamara (third round, pick #67), Kareem Hunt (third round, #86) all look like potential top-10 running backs over the next few years."

Now combine all the factors. If running back is no longer a key position in the pass-focused NFL of today, plus a deep crop of talented tailbacks anyway, Barkley simply doesn’t generate any of the value that teams can find later in the draft.

Next: 2018 NFL Draft: Two-round mock for all 32 teams

Some team will grab him early, and that’s fine. But they could just as easily land an equal-or-better contributor at the position much, much later in the NFL Draft.