Niner Noise explores how the Alex Smith trade to the Washington Redskins shakes up what could happen in the 2018 NFL Draft and, specifically, if the San Francisco 49ers can benefit.
Tuesday night, the Kansas City Star’s Terez Paylor broke the news the Chiefs were trading veteran quarterback Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins for what appeared to be a third-round NFL Draft pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller– the last, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Smith, 33 years old, unseats soon-to-be-former Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, who won’t have to worry about a third franchise tag in as many seasons. He’ll hit the free-agent market, likely cashing in on one of the more lucrative deals this offseason.
The only question is where.
San Francisco 49ers
Smith to Washington crosses off one team from the list of quarterback-needy teams this offseason. And this, particularly with so many teams in need of a signal-caller this offseason, shakes up what we think will happen in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The Redskins are currently slated to pick at No. 13. With Smith close to signing a four-year extension, they probably won’t be thinking QB anytime soon.
And the team signing Cousins won’t either.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers are set to benefit from a quarterback-hungry market. Not in need of a QB themselves (thank you, Jimmy Garoppolo), the Niners can see if top-five talent falls down the NFL Draft board to either the ninth or 10th overall pick, where they’ll pick in Round 1.
But let’s explore a bit deeper what the Smith-to-Washington deal means for the NFL Draft.
Starting off with how the Redskins and Chiefs can benefit.
How Alex Smith’s Trade Affects Chiefs, Redskins’ NFL Draft Plans
Moving Alex Smith was likely a big part of the Chiefs’ offseason plans all along. After all, they gave up quite the haul to grab quarterback Patrick Mahomes in Round 1 of the NFL Draft a year ago.
Mahomes is the future. And we’ll see if a year marinating under Smith did some good.
Without their own first-round pick (given up in the Mahomes deal), the Chiefs now own two second rounders — Nos. 44 (Washington) and 54. That helps alleviate the Mahomes trade-up a bit, and it isn’t as if K.C. is without needs.
The first was to increase cap space. Prior to the deal, Kansas City was in the red, being more than $9 million over the salary cap, per Over the Cap. Moving Smith frees up $17 million, per Terez Paylor, so that helps.
Defense figures to be the primary needs for the Chiefs in this year’s draft. Last year, Kansas City allowed an average of 6.6 yards per pass attempt — 25th in the NFL — and 4.3 yards per carry on the ground — 23rd in the league.
This doesn’t affect the quarterback market too much. All it means is the Chiefs can look to address some of their shortcomings elsewhere.
All the while hoping Mahomes is the real deal.
Redskins Giving Up Too Much?
Washington elected to go with Smith over Kirk Cousins, who would have cost in the neighborhood of $34 million if he received a third franchise tag.
On the positive side, the Redskins no longer have to worry about finding a quarterback in free agency or the NFL Draft. Smith is their guy, for better or for worse, for the next four seasons. But at 33 years old, he’s heading to a roster that finished 26th in first downs (278) a year ago.
The Redskins have some youthful talent, although one could make the argument that pick would have been better spent on draft day instead of a trade for an aging veteran.
Either way, Washington will no longer be on the hunt for a quarterback in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. They’ll look for another position to drop down to them at No. 13 overall.
Other Quarterback-Needy Teams in the NFL Draft
With Washington no longer in the market for a quarterback, there are still plenty of other squads on the hunt for a franchise signal-caller.
The Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Denver Broncos and New York Jets all have picks in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. Each team could be looking to replace departing free agents or, at least, make a serious upgrade.
The Miami Dolphins (No. 11), Cincinnati Bengals (No. 12) and Arizona Cardinals (No. 15) are also likely in the market for a QB early in the draft.
The MMQB’s Albert Breer speculates the Jets might be a front-runner for Cousins’ services, citing a connection between offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates and Cousins’ former coaches, Mike Shanahan, Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan:
Early team to watch for Kirk Cousins: the New York Jets. Don’t underestimate new OC Jeremy Bates. https://t.co/RoFG0Ysyi3 pic.twitter.com/3h6sVA3rFH
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) January 31, 2018
If that’s the case, the third overall pick won’t go the way of a quarterback. Barring a trade-up by another team, of course.
And with over $72 million in cap space, the Jets have more than enough room to make a big deal happen. Meanwhile, this frees up New York’s first pick to address one of a number of needs. CBS Sports’ R.J. White and Chris Trapasso list both offensive and defensive linemen as top needs, along with cornerback and outside linebacker.
So it wouldn’t be a shock to see a top EDGE prospect, like NC State’s Bradley Chubb, wind up going to the Jets at No. 3 overall.
Impact on the San Francisco 49ers
The short version of the story is there will likely be one less non-quarterback prospect available when the 49ers are set to draft at either No. 9 or 10 in Round 1.
Bradley Chubb, who would fill a vital edge-rushing need for San Francisco, likely wouldn’t have made it past the pass-rush-needy Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 7), so one could argue it’s not that big of a deal anyway.
But if the Jets elected to go with, let’s say, a cornerback, the Niners may be forced to adjust their NFL Draft board a bit.
If Kirk Cousins winds up going to a team behind San Francisco in draft order, though, the scenario doesn’t change much at all. All it would do is lessen the chances of another team trading up ahead of the ninth or 10th pick. Albeit slightly.
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The biggest impact of all for the 49ers, however, is Alex Smith’s reported $23.5 million yearly salary. That will certainly affect general manager John Lynch’s negotiations with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who’ll likely receive the franchise tag if no deal is reached.
Still, the Smith-to-Washington deal doesn’t do much to affect San Francisco’s plans in the NFL Draft.
Cousins’ new-found free agency could, though, all depending on where he lands.
Next: 5 Round 1 NFL Draft scenarios for the 49ers in 2018
But the bigger effect will be felt by all those other teams on the hunt for a quarterback this offseason. And it could make the first 15 picks, or so, of the 2018 NFL Draft all the more exciting and interesting this April.