The San Francisco 49ers hold either the ninth or 10th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Niner Noise predicts some scenarios general manager John Lynch will face in Round 1.
It’s that time of year where pundits and analysts spend countless hours pouring over mock NFL Draft information, breaking down which player goes where.
For the San Francisco 49ers, who own either the ninth or 10th overall pick in the draft (contingent on a coin flip with the Oakland Raiders), there are more than a few directions general manager John Lynch could go.
But as any NFL Draft fan can understand, all those mocks get thrown out the window as soon as a team makes a surprising pick or a draft-day trade.
Boom! Mock draft wreckage.
In this slideshow, we won’t offer up a mock or anything like that. No, we’ll look at a number of different scenarios the Niners could easily face when their number is called in Round 1. Remember, there are going to be eight or nine teams making picks ahead of San Francisco.
And with other teams possibly moving up, Lynch will have to be prepared to adjust on the fly.
What will he do if, and when, these five scenarios pop up on April 26?
No. 5: Fewer Quarterbacks Go Earlier than Expected
There are more than a handful of quarterback-needy teams picking within the top 10 of the NFL Draft this year.
San Francisco 49ers
And a number are slated behind the 49ers at No. 9/10 too.
Without diving too deeply into team needs, the Cleveland Browns (Nos. 1, 4), New York Giants (No. 2), Denver Broncos (No. 5) and New York Jets (No. 6) could all make plays for a QB with their first pick. So could the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Redskins and Arizona Cardinals — all slated after San Francisco — depending on what happens with their situations under center.
But what if a number of the high-profile quarterback prospects fail to impress at the NFL Scouting Combine? What if their collective player stock falls or, more reasonably, a number of the aforementioned QB-hungry teams make their signal-caller additions via free agency?
There are some notable names out there.
San Francisco doesn’t need a quarterback, thanks to the midseason pickup of Jimmy Garoppolo. Yet such a scenario would mean non-quarterback prospects may not fall as deep as initially thought.
So cross off Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, if he’s not already gone anyway. Same thing likely goes for SMU wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
John Lynch’s Reaction: Grab the highest-ranked player on the 49ers’ big board.
No. 4: An Early Round 1 Run on Quarterbacks
OK, now for the polar opposite scenario.
It’s important to note quarterback stock values only rise in the months and weeks leading up to the NFL Draft. Last year’s QB class wasn’t considered that great. But three quarterbacks ended up going in Round 1, two of them involving lucrative trade-ups (Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes).
Speaking of trade-ups…
Recall those quarterback-needy teams on the previous slide for a second. Imagine, for a moment, the Browns, Giants, Broncos and Jets all grab quarterbacks. That would push a number of the lower-drafting teams into positions where they may need to get aggressive.
Out of the four listed QB-needy teams drafting behind the Niners, the Cardinals are certainly the most desperate. They don’t have a quarterback signed for 2018, especially following Carson Palmer’s retirement. The Redskins could be desperate too, depending on what happens with Kirk Cousins this offseason.
Either way, John Lynch can take advantage of this situation. San Francisco gave up its second rounder to the Patriots in exchange for Jimmy Garoppolo. Considering Lynch’s Round 1 NFL Draft moves a year ago, it wouldn’t be a shock to see this happen again.
The Cardinals or Redskins cash in on the final end run of quarterbacks, while the Niners stockpile picks.
John Lynch’s Reaction: 49ers trade down with the Cardinals or Redskins, adding either team’s second-round NFL Draft pick and then boasting two in Round 2 (the other being the New Orleans Saints).
No. 3: No. 3: EDGE Bradley Chubb and CB Denzel Ward Both Fall to 49ers
Remember that run on quarterbacks?
Let’s assume it happens, albeit on a smaller scale. And no one is pickup up the phone calls John Lynch is making.
As things pan out in the NFL Draft, NC State edge rusher Bradley Chubb and cornerback Denzel Ward both fall to San Francisco at either No. 9 or No. 10.
Then what?
Lynch can’t pick both, despite needs at these positions, unless the craziest of crazy moves takes place. So he’ll have to pick. Which one does he go with?
Both Ward and Chubb have been mocked to San Francisco in various projections. And both would help improve the defense significantly. For the selection, though, let’s turn to Pro Football Focus’ Steve Palazzolo’s tabbing of Chubb to the Niners:
"The defensive line has been a consistent theme to recent 49ers’ first rounds, but Chubb brings a different dynamic to the table. He finished No. 6 overall among edge defenders at 89.4, including the No. 3 mark against the run and the No. 11 grade as a pass-rusher."
CBS Sports’ latest big board lists Chubb as the No. 1 overall prospect. He might not be quite on the same level of hype current Browns EDGE Myles Garrett generated last year. But Chubb is close.
So talk about a great value grab by Lynch and the 49ers here.
Plus, a secondary is only as good as the pass rush. Good pass-rushers can take the pressure off coverage guys, making their jobs significantly easier.
John Lynch’s Reaction: When faced with a decision between Chubb and Ward, the Niners get stronger up front and look to bolster the secondary on day two of the NFL Draft.
No. 2: 49ers Lose the Coin Toss and Pick at No. 10
Let’s hope John Lynch and the 49ers are working on their coin-tossing skills this offseason.
Either way, the Niners and Raiders will decide who picks at No. 9 and No. 10, via a coin flip, at the NFL Scouting Combine this spring. It’s not hard to find mocks out there saying San Francisco wins here.
But what if the 49ers lose?
OK, No. 10 isn’t bad. Although one can assuredly guarantee the coin-toss loss crosses off a defensive player from Lynch’s big board. That’s where the Raiders will go.
Let’s assume, for a moment, both Bradley Chubb and Denzel Ward are gone when San Francisco’s number is called at No. 10. And there’s been a modest run on quarterbacks to kick off the NFL Draft as well.
Going with a defensive player does make sense here. A lot of sense. Let’s change things up, though, and put together a scenario where Lynch focuses on offense.
Remember SMU’s Courtland Sutton? The 6-foot-4, 215-pound wide receiver immediately becomes a red-zone threat. At 22 years old, he’s more than just a long-term replacement for the veteran, Pierre Garçon. He’d be the 49ers’ equivalent of the Atlanta Falcons’ Julio Jones — a big target with big-play capabilities.
Just like that, San Francisco’s receiving corps becomes elite.
John Lynch’s Reaction: After a run on quarterbacks, with defenders filling other teams’ needs, the Niners give quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo a massive weapon on the outside with Sutton.
No. 1: 49ers Win the Coin Toss and Pick at No. 9
OK, all the scenarios mentioned on the previous slide ring true. A number of quarterbacks go, and there’s a small run on defenders. Courtland Sutton is gone (possibly to the receiver-needy Chicago Bears), but the Niners hold the No. 9 overall pick after winning the coin toss with the Raiders.
Yay! San Francisco’s first “win” of 2018!
It’s time for another NFL Draft crush. One can see how San Francisco’s offense started to click with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. There are questions, for sure, but there are more needs on defense.
Linebacker isn’t one of them, per se, but why skip a chance to get even stronger at a position of strength?
You guessed it. Georgia’s Roquan Smith.
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Smith won’t fall past the Raiders, for sure, meaning he’d last as deep as the 49ers’ pick at No. 9. The Niners have both injury and off-the-field concerns with one-year pro Reuben Foster, and veteran linebacker Malcolm Smith missed all of 2017 with a pectoral injury.
On the field, Foster is a top-five NFL linebacker. Adding Smith to this equation would remind Niners fans of the days when Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman patrolled the second level of the defense.
And the move would give plenty of insurance to any Foster or Smith worries.
Next: 5 prospects the 49ers can target in Round 1 of the NFL Draft
John Lynch’s Reaction: If Smith falls to No. 9, John Lynch grabs arguably a top-three player from this year’s NFL Draft class, adding to a young and blossoming defensive front seven.