NFL postseason: Predicting the 2017 playoff picture and Super Bowl winner
By Peter Panacy
NFC Contenders & Pretenders
The NFC playoff picture is a bit less crowded than the AFC, but perhaps a bit murkier.
With the Niners, Bears and Giants all out of the hunt for NFL postseason glory, only three teams can truly be written off by this point.
Here are the standings for those teams still in the mix:
| Tm | W | L | T | Position | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings (1) | 10 | 2 | 0 | North Champion | strength of victory |
| Philadelphia Eagles (2) | 10 | 2 | 0 | East Champion | |
| Los Angeles Rams (3) | 9 | 3 | 0 | West Champion | head-to-head record |
| New Orleans Saints (4) | 9 | 3 | 0 | South Champion | |
| Seattle Seahawks (5) | 8 | 4 | 0 | Wild Card #1 | conference win percentage |
| Carolina Panthers (6) | 8 | 4 | 0 | Wild Card #2 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 5 | 0 | ||
| Detroit Lions | 6 | 6 | 0 | win percentage in common games | |
| Green Bay Packers | 6 | 6 | 0 | head-to-head record | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 6 | 0 | ||
| Washington Redskins | 5 | 7 | 0 | conference win percentage | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 7 | 0 | ||
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/6/2017.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t going to get back to the .500 mark this season. And that probably doesn’t earn a playoff berth anyway. Assuming a 9-7 finish is barely enough, the Redskins and Arizona Cardinals would have to have the biggest of surges paired with a lot of luck.
Remember, Arizona is starting quarterback Blaine Gabbert under center. Um, no.
Contenders
What the Minnesota Vikings have done this year — both with their defense and quarterback Case Keenum — is pretty remarkable. They’re for real, if you haven’t noticed, and are certainly deserving of a first-round bye.
Two road games, against the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 and the Green Bay Packers in Week 16, could make things interesting, though. The Packers are expecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) back in Week 15.
More on that later.
The Vikings have all but wrapped up the NFC North, but that playoff bye is precious. A 3-1 finish isn’t out of the question.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off only their second loss of the season versus the Seattle Seahawks. Philly visits the Los Angeles Rams this week, which could get interesting, but their remaining three games are pretty winnable.
The Rams and Seahawks are both serious contenders, and the only question is mastery of the NFC West. L.A. holds a one-game lead here, but Seattle has the tie-breaker from it’s win over the Rams back in Week 5.
Look for a key showdown with L.A. at CenturyLink Field in Week 15 to be the difference maker.
The New Orleans Saints, yes, especially with the way they’re both running the ball and playing defense. But what about the Panthers and Atlanta Falcons — also both in hot pursuit of either a Wild Card or NFC South berth?
Pretenders
Rodgers’ return is about the best news the Packers could have this late in the year. And facing the lowly Browns in Week 14 should be a nice bridge to him coming back the following week against the Panthers.
Realistically, though, Green Bay would have to win out to find a Wild Card. The Packers won’t catch the Vikings, and they have to play them again in Week 16. Additionally, three of their remaining four games are on the road.
Green Bay needed to win that Week 12 game against the Steelers in a big way. That one hurts.
Like the Packers, the 6-6 Detroit Lions would probably need to win out to have a chance to get in. With quarterback Matthew Stafford (hand, questionable) on the mend, prospects for this seem unlikely.
Plus, they host the Packers in Week 17, who may also be fighting for their playoff lives. But it’s more likely neither’s chances exist that late in the NFL season.
And guess what, everybody. The Dallas Cowboys are on the pretenders list too.
True, running back Ezekiel Elliott is eligible to return in Week 16 against the Seahawks. Combine that with the Cowboys facing off against the Giants and Raiders on the road in back-to-back weeks, a late surge is possible.
But it stops with that Week 16 matchup and is likely reinforced by a season-ending divisional bout with the Eagles.
Unless Philly is resting everyone, of course.
Simply put, Dallas has to win out here. And that’s a tall order to crack the playoffs, especially considering the Wild Card representatives likely fall between three teams.
Panthers and Falcons on the Bubble
The Rams and Seahawks are in great position to secure the NFC West, with the other team likely ending up a Wild Card.
As for the final spot, though, it likely comes down to the Falcons and Panthers.
Carolina holds that berth now, but they have to host the Vikings in Week 14. That’s a tall order, and the Vikings are still trying to secure a first-round bye. Only one game on the Panthers’ remaining schedule — Week 16 versus the Buccaneers — should be classified as an easy win. But everyone will likely be watching Carolina’s 2017 regular-season finale at the Falcons.
That game could be crucial for Atlanta, who is currently on the outside, looking in. But things aren’t going to be easy to improve upon the Falcons’ 7-5 mark.
All four of their remaining games are against NFC South opponents, including Week 17 versus Carolina. And two more are against the Saints.
A 2-2 finish for Atlanta isn’t out of the question, but will that be enough?