49ers: Analyzing Kyle Shanahan’s fourth-down decisions

Second Fourth-Down Attempt

After the Panthers’ field goal, the 49ers begin the drive on their 25-yard line with 3:23 left in the half. After an incomplete pass and a 21-yard reception by wide receiver Pierre Garçon, the 49ers have the ball on their own 46-yard line.

On first down, Carlos Hyde sees daylight but trips over his lineman’s foot and falls forward for a 1-yard gain:

With the Panthers out of timeouts, the Niners have little urgency to get another play off before the two-minute warning.

After the break, Brian Hoyer’s next pass goes to George Kittle, who fights for extra yardage, and doesn’t get out of bounds to stop the clock:

With just three yards to go, the 49ers take their time setting up their third-down attempt. All indications point to the Niners running down the clock, due to Carolina’s lack of timeouts.

Either the 49ers will move the sticks on third down, and then utilize their two timeouts while they push the ball toward the end zone, or if the team is stopped, they will attempt to pin Carolina deep in their territory with a Bradley Pinion punt.

The 49ers allow another 35 seconds to run before they snap the ball. With pressure coming, Hoyer dumps the ball off to Hyde, who is stopped just under two yards from the marker:

The 49ers then allow 30 seconds to run off the clock before calling their second timeout.

With just 46 seconds to go, a punt will ensure the end of the half. Instead, the 49ers decide to go for it again, and fullback Kyle Juszczyk is stuffed for no gain on the misdirection run:

As much flak as Kyle Shanahan received for his previous fourth-down call, this decision was worse.

The 49ers were attempting to do one of two things on this drive — get down the field and into a position to score a touchdown at a quick pace, or move the ball down the field while controlling the clock to ensure they would have the last chance to score.

If the 49ers were attempting to do the former, they did a terrible job of it. They took extremely long between plays, kept the clock running instead of going out of bounds and waited 30 seconds before calling a timeout.

The 49ers appeared to be doing the latter, which they did exceptionally well until the failed third-down attempt. Still, they were in position to punt the ball to a Panthers team with no timeouts and little time on the clock. Essentially, the half was over.

Instead, Shanahan decided to go for it.

Yes, it’s a higher percentage play to go for this 4th-and-almost-2 than the previous 4th-and-4, but at what cost? If the 49ers punt, the Panthers have essentially no chance of scoring before the half. The only way the Panthers can score is if the 49ers offense — an offense that had converted one of seven third- or fourth-down attempts — gives the ball back to Carolina at midfield, which they did.

At the time, the decision screamed of desperation:

Seven plays later, the Panthers kicked a 36-yard field goal.

The 49ers were scheduled to receive the second-half kickoff. If Shanahan hadn’t gifted the Panthers their previous field goal, he likely elects to punt and takes his team into the locker room down by one score.

Instead, Shanahan tried to fix his first mistake with another mistake, and the 49ers were down by 13 at halftime. After Hoyer’s second pass of the second half was intercepted, and the Panthers drove 28 yards for their second touchdown, the game was essentially over.