San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is bringing his historic offense to a new team with new personnel. We analyze Shanahan’s red-zone offense and break down the top-10 red-zone weapons for the 2017 49ers.
Kyle Shanahan’s 2016 Atlanta Falcons offense was the best offense in the NFL; the 540 points the Falcons scored was the seventh highest total in the history of the league.
Will Shanahan be able to duplicate his offensive success with the 2017 San Francisco 49ers?
Shanahan’s 2016 offense led the league in Football Outsider’s DVOA. Last year, the 49ers were 23rd in offensive DVOA, and their passing offensive ranked 28th in the league.
San Francisco 49ers
When Shanahan arrived in San Francisco, he quickly worked with general manager John Lynch to remake the 49ers offense. The 49ers now have a new set of starting wide receivers, a new starting fullback and rookies competing for starting jobs at tight end and running back.
But Shanahan doesn’t have Julio Jones — one of the best wide receivers in the league — and Jones must be the reason the Falcons put up such gaudy scoring numbers.
Surprisingly, the data shows that Shanahan rarely used his star receiver near the end zone. While Jones was a force on the field, and was used to move the chains, he had limited impact in the red zone.
In 2016, Jones caught only two of quarterback Matt Ryan’s 23 red-zone touchdown passes. Instead of force-feeding Jones in the red zone, Ryan threw touchdown passes to 11 different Falcons.
Running back Devonta Freeman led the team in red-zone targets, to go along with his 50 red-zone rushing attempts. Jones had the team’s fourth highest market share of red-zone targets — and the same number as tight end Jacob Tamme, who only played half of the season.
If Shanahan didn’t use Jones in the red-zone, then which players — and strategies — did he use? And which 2017 49ers fit best into Shanahan’s red-zone scheme?
10. Logan Paulsen
Tight end Logan Paulsen has never scored more than three touchdowns in a season, but he’ll have his opportunities in 2017.
As the 49ers’ top blocking tight end, Paulsen will be on the field for a good portion of red-zone snaps, and the vast majority of plays inside the 5-yard line. Although his primary responsibility will be blocking in the running game, Paulsen will see his share of looks in the passing game as well.
When Shanahan calls a play-action pass near the goal line, his blocking tight end often finds himself uncovered in the end zone for the easy score:
On third downs, Shanahan likes to use motion to create rubs for his receivers or to force the defense into making last-second changes:
9. Trent Taylor
Rookie wide receiver Trent Taylor was no stranger to the end zone in college — he scored 12 touchdowns in 14 games last year.
At 5 feet 8 inches tall, you’d assume Taylor wouldn’t be a red zone threat, but shorter receivers thrive in Shanahan’s offense — just ask 5-foot-10 wide receiver Justin Hardy, who had as many targets inside the 10-yard line as Jones in 2016.
Taylor doesn’t have the best straight-line speed, but his short-area quickness makes him perfect for the shovel pass Shanahan calls near the goal line:
Taylor is an accomplished route runner, which is a trait Shanahan prefers over height. Here, Shanahan shows that if you can execute, you don’t need to be 6-foot-4 to work the middle of the end zone:
8. Jeremy Kerley
Wide receiver Jeremy Kerley had the best season of his career in 2016, which earned him a three-year contract with the 49ers this offseason.
In 2017, Kerley will compete with Taylor for snaps out of the slot — and the six-year veteran’s experience in the league should give him the early-season advantage over the rookie.
Kerley will get his share of red zone opportunities, as Shanahan likes to attack zone coverage with his slot receiver near the end zone:
Another early-season advantage Kerley has over Taylor is his experience running the football — although Taylor returned punts and was comfortable with the ball in his hands, he never ran the football in college:
7. George Kittle
Over his college career, rookie tight end George Kittle didn’t have Taylor’s level of production — he had only 737 receiving yards over four years — but he may have more upside in the NFL.
Kittle is an elite athlete who has the potential to become a star in the league. Although tight ends usually have slow transitions from college to the next level, all reports on Kittle from 49ers’ minicamp were glowing.
Even if he is unable to crack the starting lineup, Kittle will surely have opportunities in the red zone, due to Shanahan’s use of multiple-tight-end sets:
If he is able to earn a starting role, then the sky is the limit for Kittle’s red-zone production, thanks to a Shanahan offense that relies heavily on tight ends:
6. Kyle Juszczyk
Free-agent newcomer Kyle Juszczyk is more than just a fullback; if you ask Lynch, he’s an “offensive weapon.”
John Lynch on Kyle Juszczyk: "He's not a fullback. He's an OW. He's an offensive weapon."
— Kevin Jones (@Mr_KevinJones) March 10, 2017
After Juszczyk’s signing, I wrote an article analyzing Shanahan’s use of fullbacks in the passing game. Under Shanahan, Falcons fullback Patrick DiMarco caught passes from the fullback, tight end and wide receiver positions.
If Shanahan was able to “weaponize” DiMarco — a run-blocking fullback who poses little threat as a receiver — expect “Juice” to be used as an offensive weapon, both between the 20s and in the red zone.
Juszczyk will be on the field in all short-yardage situations, and will be a threat to score off play action:
He will also have his opportunities when lined up as a tight end:
5. Marquise Goodwin
Free-agent addition wide receiver Marquise Goodwin is a threat to score from anywhere on the field; this year, he’ll have the opportunity to become a complete receiver.
Shanahan’s offense is the perfect offense for the 5-foot-9 Goodwin to translate his world-class Olympic speed into red-zone touchdowns.
As I noted in my film breakdown of the receiver, Goodwin never plays in the slot, and has good hands — especially near the sideline — so he’ll do the majority of his damage outside the numbers:
Shanahan used wide receiver Taylor Gabriel’s speed to attack red-zone defenses, and he will likely do the same with Goodwin:
4. Vance McDonald
Hold on a second — I thought tight end Vance McDonald is going to get cut?
If you’ve read anything about the 49ers’ tight-end logjam, you probably assume McDonald is as good as gone. Yet McDonald is still on the roster, is the incumbent starter, and is the team’s most productive tight end.
I’ve written that it doesn’t make sense for the 49ers to cut McDonald, but it does make some sense to trade him.
Until he’s off the team or officially demoted, McDonald is the 49ers’ top tight end — and with that role comes a plethora of red-zone targets:
Shanahan often lines his tight ends up in the slot, where McDonald has excelled in the past:
3. Pierre Garcon
When the 49ers signed free-agent wide receiver Pierre Garcon to a five-year contract in March, they paid him like a number one receiver. Garcon is no Julio Jones, but he has played like a number one receiver in the past.
Unlike Jones, Garcon is not a physically imposing receiver who demands double-teams. At just 6 feet tall, Garcon wins with his hands and route-running skills.
In many ways, Garcon is a better version of Mohamed Sanu, who led the team’s receivers in red-zone targets in 2016:
Garcon won’t have Jones to draw away defensive attention, but he will still likely lead the 49ers’ wide receivers in red-zone targets:
2. Joe Williams
Shanahan is a fan of rookie running back Joe Williams.
Shanahan reportedly talked Lynch into adding Williams to the 49ers draft board before the beginning of the fourth round of the 2017 NFL Draft. As Shanahan told Sports Illustrated’s Peter King prior to the round:
"“I’m telling you right now: If we don’t get him, I’ll be sick. I will be contemplating Joe Williams all night.” -Kyle Shanahan"
After the fourth round began, the 49ers moved up 22 spots, and Shanahan got his man.
In 2016, Shanahan’s number two running back Tevin Coleman had 29 red-zone touches for eight touchdowns. For comparison, Shanahan’s top red-zone wide receiver had ten touches for four scores.
If Williams wins the role, he will be prominently featured in the red zone — primarily in the running game, but also in the passing game:
Williams will be given the opportunity to display his speed and cutting ability on a variety of red-zone passes:
1. Carlos Hyde
A running back in a contract year couldn’t ask for a better situation. Carlos Hyde will begin the season as the number one back in a red-zone offense that loves to run the ball, and features the running back in the passing game.
Shanahan’s top running back Freeman scored 13 touchdowns in 2016, after scoring 14 touchdowns the year before. Hyde could be in store for a career year.
He just needs to stay healthy.
In 2016, Freeman led all running backs in red-zone targets:
A healthy Hyde will rack up red-zone looks on the ground, and will have the opportunity to add scores through the air:
Next: 49ers film room: Robert Saleh's 4-3 base defense
Who do you think Shanahan’s top-10 red-zone weapons will be in 2017? Sound off in the comments section, or @cgawilson on Twitter.