Vance McDonald is the San Francisco 49ers’ best all-around tight end, yet the media — and many fans — predict he will soon be released. We discuss the reasons why the 49ers will not cut McDonald, who is a prime candidate for a breakout season in 2017.
After three long years, San Francisco 49ers linebacker Ahmad Brooks finally has some competition.
Of course, Brooks has competition at outside linebacker every season; but historically, Brooks is the only 49ers starter that the media annually targets for a pending offseason release that never comes to fruition.
This offseason, Brooks shares the crosshairs with two surprising defensive teammates; four-time All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman, and the 49ers’ best pass rusher, LEO Aaron Lynch.
All three will likely start for the 49ers when the upcoming season begins.
On the offensive side of the ball, the 49ers have another probable starter and cut candidate in tight end Vance McDonald.
The rumor began when the 49ers entertained trade offers for McDonald during the recent NFL Draft, and reportedly turned down one offer. Somehow, the team’s willingness to trade McDonald has morphed into a willingness to cut him.
But the San Francisco 49ers will not cut Vance McDonald — and here are the reasons why.
McDonald’s Contract
Near the end of the 2016 season, the San Francisco 49ers signed McDonald to a five-year contract extension.
McDonald’s new contract included a $7 million signing bonus and a $2.1 million guaranteed base salary in 2017, for a total of $9.1 million guaranteed.
If the 49ers cut McDonald, they owe him the remainder of the $9.1 million, even though he hasn’t played a down of football under his new contract.
The 49ers shouldn’t make bad business decisions just because they have excess cap space. The team’s reluctance to spend over recent years can be an asset for the new regime; why waste this advantage by spending money on a player who’s playing for another team?
49ers fans — and some in the media — also tend to forget that this $9.1 million is real money. This is money that will be coming out of the York family checkbook — a checkbook that stays as closed as the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement allows.
If the 49ers choose to part ways with McDonald, a trade is a much more reasonable outcome; the Niners would receive value in return — as opposed to merely discarding McDonald, and paying $9.1 million to do so.
By comparison, the 49ers owe tight end Garrett Celek $1.9 million if he is cut. The Niners owe Blake Bell $250,000, and Logan Paulsen $125,000.
Money matters.
Shanahan’s Tight Ends
San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense requires at least three tight ends who are threats in the receiving game.
The NFL may be a three-wide-receiver league, but Shanahan prefers heavier sets. While the rest of the league used 11 personnel on 60 percent of their plays in 2016, Shanahan’s Atlanta Falcons used 11 personnel only 44 percent of the time.
In 2016, only two teams used three-tight-end sets more often than the Falcons. But when the Falcons offense lined up in these big sets, they didn’t just run the ball; the Falcons threw out of 13 personnel more than any team in the league.
As I discussed last week, when Shanahan’s offense is in a heavy set, the defense still needs to protect the deep portion of the field:
Atlanta’s tight ends were a major reason why Shanahan’s offense lead the NFL in explosive passing plays in 2016. Even though they weren’t the most talented group, they looked the part with Shanahan calling the plays.
McDonald’s Drops
The most common complaint about McDonald is his propensity to drop catchable passes — his “stone hands” nickname was well-deserved after he dropped over a quarter of the limited passes thrown his way during his first two seasons.
The 49ers used to have a tight end with the same nickname. Niner fans know that by spending hours of practice with a JUGGS machine, and then making the catch of a lifetime, a player can lose that “stone hands” nickname and become a legend.
Hopefully McDonald is putting in the work necessary to improve his hands and drop rate.
Last month, David Neumann, of Better Rivals Podcast and Pro Football Focus fame, stoked the “Cut McDonald” fire when he tweeted about McDonald’s career 15.8 percent drop rate:
McDonald has improved his drop rate since the beginning of his career; he dropped 11.1 percent of his catchable passes in 2016.
Still, McDonald drops too many passes. Unfortunately for the 49ers, their other tight ends are even worse.
Celek dropped 14.7 percent of his catchable targets in 2016, which was the worst drop rate among all tight ends.
In 2016, Bell dropped a third of his catchable pass opportunities, and newcomer Paulsen dropped a quarter of his catchable targets.
If the 49ers cut McDonald for his drops, they’ll have to cut all of their tight ends.
George Kittle
When the 49ers drafted tight end George Kittle in the fifth round of the 2017 NFL Draft, he became an immediate fan favorite. Kittle is an athletic freak who was described as “the best all-around tight end in college football” by Pro Football Focus prior to the 2016 season.
Once fans saw the highlight reel of his one-handed catch against the Maryland Terrapins, many deemed Kittle the new 49ers starting tight end, and McDonald was instantly expendable.
Kittle may be the 49ers’ future, but history tells us it’s unlikely he’s their present.
Similar to quarterbacks, most tight ends have difficult transitions from college to the NFL; even future Hall of Famers usually take a year or two before they excel at the next level. Understandably, tight ends selected late in the draft take even longer to produce against their new NFL opponents.
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Over his 11 games played in 2016, McDonald had 391 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Those who believe the 49ers should release McDonald based on these meager statistics likely expect Kittle to double or triple McDonald’s 2016 production.
What’s the likelihood Kittle will merely equal McDonald’s 2016 production, if given a full 16-game rookie season? We can’t predict the future, but we can analyze the past.
In the last 25 years, how many tight ends drafted in the fifth, sixth or seventh rounds had at least 391 receiving yards in their rookie season?
Just one — in 2013, rookie Mychal Rivera accumulated 407 receiving yards over 16 games.
Hopefully Kittle will be able to equal Rivera’s “record-breaking” rookie season, but if he doesn’t, all is not lost.
49ers fans would love for Kittle to become the next Greg Olsen — the first round draft pick, and two-time All-Pro. How many receiving yards did Olsen have in his rookie season? Exactly 391.
McDonald’s Competition
The bar may be low, but Vance McDonald is the best tight end on the 49ers’ roster. With a 71.6 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, McDonald was PFF’s 24th best tight end in 2016.
Paulsen’s 52.6 overall grade from PFF was the 45th best among qualifying tight ends; Celek’s 45.8 grade was the 4th worst. Bell received a 50.2 overall grade, but did not play enough to qualify.
The 49ers also have rookie tight ends Kittle and undrafted free agent Cole Hikutini on their roster.
The 49ers will keep three or four tight ends. It’s hard to argue McDonald isn’t the best tight end on the 49ers roster; can anyone reasonable claim he’s not the third best tight end on the team?
If the Niners decide to go with a completely revamped group, it would come at a hefty price; would any general manager spend $13 Million for one year of a late-round pick, an undrafted free agent, and a blocking tight end?
I have a bit more faith in Shanahan and 49ers general manager John Lynch — and I expect we will see McDonald doing a lot more of this in 2017:
Next: QB Hoyer's Vertical Passing Game
Hopefully we will see him producing in red and gold, in the 49ers’ new explosive offense.