2017 NFL Draft: GM John Lynch Positions 49ers to Trade No. 2 Pick
By Chris Wilson
The History of Draft Trade Strategy
Draft trade strategy has evolved significantly over the lifetime of the NFL Draft. Historically, active players were often traded for draft picks, or packaged with later selections and traded for early picks.
Prior to the early 1960s, when free agency unofficially began, the value of a top draft pick was sky-high. A team knew that if they drafted a “franchise player,” he was indeed a franchise player, since the team could keep him at a low cost for his entire career.
Even after the beginning of free agency, and the implementation of the Rozelle Rule, players had limited options in the free-agent market. Not until the NFL was forced to allow unrestricted free agency did the economics of professional football truly begin to change.
Decades ago, No. 1 picks were commonly traded, including in both of the first two years after Dallas Cowboys Coach Jimmy Johnson created his famous Draft Value Chart. However, as the value of contracts increased, the value of the top picks decreased.
How much is a top pick worth, if you have to pay your new rookie quarterback more than an established top QB?
Due to the requirement to overpay rookie players, top draft picks became less coveted; in the decade after 2001, zero No. 1 or No. 2 overall picks changed hands.
In 2011, a new NFL collective bargaining agreement was signed, and with it came a new rookie pay scale. Gone were the days of $78 million contracts to Sam Bradford; the next No. 1 pick, Cam Newton, signed a rookie contract for just over $22 million.
Overnight, the new agreement increased draft pick value exponentially, especially at the very top of the draft. Teams were incentivized to draft players at high-cost positions, to save even more on every contract.
The most expensive position in the free-agency era is the quarterback position — last year, the top-16 contracts belonged to QBs.
Now, teams had a way to get their $78 million dollar franchise QB at a fraction of the price.
The top of the draft was back open for business.