2017 NFL Draft: Why the 49ers Won’t Draft LSU RB Leonard Fournette
By Chris Wilson
“Can’t Miss” RBs Usually Miss
Drafting RBs early is bad for business.
When the 2015 Rams drafted Gurley, they broke a wait-on-RB trend that existed for good reason; recent early-round RBs weren’t productive.
The first RBs chosen in previous drafts are well-known names, but not necessarily for good reasons: Bishop Sankey, Giovani Bernard, Trent Richardson, Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller and Knowshon Moreno.
What did these faces-of-the-franchise do in 2016? Two played in split-time situations, two bounced between teams playing little or none and two were unemployed.
A lot of draft capital was spent on these picks, but only Richardson, Spiller and Moreno were drafted in the top half of the first round. The 49ers will have to spend a lot more draft capital with the second pick of the 2017 NFL Draft.
Since most general managers realize that selecting a RB with a top pick is generally a bad strategy, we have to go all the way back to 1990 to obtain an appropriate sample to analyze:
- 1990 – No. 2 overall – Blair Thomas
- 1994 – No. 2 overall – Marshall Faulk
- 1995 – No. 1 overall – Ki-Jana Carter
- 2005 – No. 2 overall – Ronnie Brown
- 2006 – No. 2 overall – Reggie Bush
After reviewing each draft, a number of things stand out. With the obvious benefit of hindsight, the Indianapolis Colts made the right decision when they drafted Faulk, even though they subsequently traded him away before the best years of his career.
Still, he gave them three Pro Bowl seasons out of five in Indianapolis, so it’s hard to argue against the pick.
By choosing an early RB, each of the other four teams missed out on better players, at higher-value positions, who were viable first-round draft options at the time. What’s most surprising is that not only did these teams pass on better players at other positions, they also passed on better RBs chosen later in the draft. Let’s take a look at what they missed.