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2017 NFL Draft: Why the 49ers Won’t Draft LSU RB Leonard Fournette

By Chris Wilson

Nov 14, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) walks off the field after the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Tiger Stadium. The Razorbacks won 31-14. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 14, 2015; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) walks off the field after the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Tiger Stadium. The Razorbacks won 31-14. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell poses for a photo with draft prospects in attendance on the stage before the 2014 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; NFL commissioner Roger Goodell poses for a photo with draft prospects in attendance on the stage before the 2014 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /

BPA

With so many needs to fill, the 49ers should just draft the “best player available.”

The problem with this argument is “best player available” doesn’t literally mean “best player available.” More accurately, when a team implements a BPA drafting strategy, they are looking for the best value available.

Think of best value available as best player available, but within the confines of the NFL Positional Value Pyramid, where the QB tier is most valuable, then the EDGE/LT/top-CB tier, and so on.

In today’s NFL, the RB position isn’t as valuable of a position as it once was. Just look at “Generational Talent” AP, one of the best RBs in history, who played on a number of good teams, yet has no Super Bowl ring and only one playoff victory in his career.

As an extreme example, if a team knew a particular kicker would become the best kicker in the history of the NFL, would they take him with the first overall pick? Even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would pass on this “best player available.”

Also, teams who draft the “best player available” still consider their current roster when they make their selections. What are the odds a team like the Carolina Panthers draft a quarterback with their first pick in the 2017 NFL Draft if he’s the “best player available” to select?

For the sake of the argument, let’s say they draft the quarterback. When it’s time for their second-round selection, if the “best player available” is another quarterback, do they draft him too?

Even with the highest valued position in football, the answer is no, because the team’s current roster does matter.

And the 49ers have RB Carlos Hyde on their roster, which takes us to the final category.