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49ers Draft: The Myles Garrett Hype Train and If He Falls

By Jonah Burros

Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Myles Garrett (15) in action during the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Myles Garrett (15) in action during the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Tennessee Volunteers defensive end Derek Barnett (9) and Texas A&M Aggies offensive lineman Avery Gennesy (65) in action during the game at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Tennessee Volunteers defensive end Derek Barnett (9) and Texas A&M Aggies offensive lineman Avery Gennesy (65) in action during the game at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeat the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

The Breakdown

Allow me to address Myles Garrett fans who would say that the comparison with Derek Barnett’s numbers are skewed because Garrett had injury issues spanning multiple games in 2016.

There are two commensurate factors that help to mitigate that outstanding point in this statistical analysis.

The first being I used the Dion Jordan/Anthony Barr comparison because Barr’s first two years with UCLA were primarily on offense, seriously diminishing his career defensive stats.

Regardless of inferior numbers coupled with almost twice as much time at the position of interest, Dion Jordan was drafted No. 3 overall in 2014 but has proven to be a bust and was subsequently released by the Miami Dolphins this offseason.

Ironically, Anthony Barr was chosen eighth overall the following year and just earned his second Pro Bowl nod despite having an off year.

Second is the overwhelming difference in Garrett and Derek Barnett’s strength of schedule:

As you can see, the Tennessee Volunteers played a much more consistent level of competition over this three-year period.

While sacks and pressure on the quarterback are important for this position, it is not all that is required in the NFL or the NCAA. The ability to stop the run, pursue the ball and not take yourself out of the play by a relentless quest for sacks is what makes the best edge rushers into superstars.

The glaring difference in total tackles between Barnett and Garrett stand out to me, this compiled with consistency in tackles and sacks regardless of the competition raise concerns with Garrett when I look at these numbers and when they were accrued.

With so many experts looking at these numbers, you must assume that Garrett’s incredible combination of size and speed, or his ability with his hands and moves against offensive lineman, are placing him so much higher on their boards. This is something that could be viewed in his tape against quality tackles in his conference, but I am not seeing a plethora of success against decent competition.

University of Alabama starting left tackle Cam Robinson faced Garrett several times over the last few years and had this to say according to Chase Goodbread of NFL.com:

There is no doubt Garrett is one of the best prospects in this year’s draft. He is big and fast with a twitch coming off the line.

The analytics do not make him the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 though, so what is left are the intangibles. Things like coachability, character and football intelligence do not necessarily show up in the statistics.