Mean Regression Is a Real Thing
On one hand, this year’s draft board gives me the willies.
The top is loaded with receivers, the third running back off the board is a rookie, and by the time you hit the middle of the second round, virtually every player has some sort of looming question mark.
Yet, with uncertainty comes opportunity. And in 2016, that opportunity is to snatch a few players on the rebound.
Said another way, I’d rather spend this year’s risk budget on players who have done it before than to pay up for alleged talents that have yet to prove themselves.
Here is my list of top ten fantasy rebound candidates in 2016:
OK, so I lied. It’s 11.
But I had to shoehorn in Jimmy Graham, because I simply can’t believe a 6-foot-6 offensive juggernaut, who had double-digit touchdowns in three of his last five seasons (and nine the only other year apart from last year, by the way), can shrivel this dramatically.
And if you pressed me on it, I’d likely add WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson to the list. I just couldn’t take being accused of being that much of a cheese lover.
Regardless, the overriding point is that there are a host of names who are trading well off of their prior year’s performances as well as their career averages. These are the players to target.
Or you can always roll with Doug Baldwin. You be the judge.
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