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Fantasy Football: 10 League-Winning Strategies for 2016 Draft Day

By JD Leidy

Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Quinton Patton (11) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Quinton Patton (11) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) runs after the catch during the fourth quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi’s Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) runs after the catch during the fourth quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi’s Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /

Mean Regression Is a Real Thing

On one hand, this year’s draft board gives me the willies.

The top is loaded with receivers, the third running back off the board is a rookie, and by the time you hit the middle of the second round, virtually every player has some sort of looming question mark.

Yet, with uncertainty comes opportunity. And in 2016, that opportunity is to snatch a few players on the rebound.

Said another way, I’d rather spend this year’s risk budget on players who have done it before than to pay up for alleged talents that have yet to prove themselves.

Here is my list of top ten fantasy rebound candidates in 2016:

Table 4-Regression to the Mean Players
Table 4-Regression to the Mean Players /

OK, so I lied. It’s 11.

But I had to shoehorn in Jimmy Graham, because I simply can’t believe a 6-foot-6 offensive juggernaut, who had double-digit touchdowns in three of his last five seasons (and nine the only other year apart from last year, by the way), can shrivel this dramatically.

And if you pressed me on it, I’d likely add WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson to the list. I just couldn’t take being accused of being that much of a cheese lover.

Regardless, the overriding point is that there are a host of names who are trading well off of their prior year’s performances as well as their career averages. These are the players to target.

Or you can always roll with Doug Baldwin. You be the judge.

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