Fantasy Drafts Are Won (and Lost) in the Middle Rounds
Every fantasy season, owners agonize over who they will take in the first few rounds. However, rarely are leagues won or lost based on first and second rounders.
Why is that? Because, despite everyone’s collective effort to identify fail-safe players, at least half of them won’t pan out.
Below is a chart of ESPN’s consensus top-20 players entering the 2015 fantasy season, along with their ultimate end-of-season position rankings. The highlighted names are those who were worth their respective Average Draft Positions (ADPs).
Now, consider the names who finished as the top-five players at their respective positions in 2015, along with their pre-draft positions in the ESPN Top 300.
Pretty convincing, isn’t it? Sure, eight of the first 20 names delivered. But look how many early picks turned out to be utter bilge.
Seasons will be won and lost with picks in the middle-to-late rounds — a la QBs Carson Palmer and Blake Bortles, RBs Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin and WRs Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson.
So, do your homework. Have a draft plan and players identified at each stage of the draft (beginning, middle, and end) who you like over their ADP peers.
Don’t just focus on your top few picks.
Next: Let the Draft Come to You