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Fantasy Football: 10 League-Winning Strategies for 2016 Draft Day

By JD Leidy

Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Quinton Patton (11) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Quinton Patton (11) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports /
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January 29, 2016; Kahuku, HI, USA; Hawaiian hostesses Chelsea Hardin (far left) and Mahina Garcia (far right) pose with Team Irvin wide receiver Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars (15) during 2016 Pro Bowl photo day at Turtle Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
January 29, 2016; Kahuku, HI, USA; Hawaiian hostesses Chelsea Hardin (far left) and Mahina Garcia (far right) pose with Team Irvin wide receiver Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars (15) during 2016 Pro Bowl photo day at Turtle Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Fantasy Drafts Are Won (and Lost) in the Middle Rounds

Every fantasy season, owners agonize over who they will take in the first few rounds. However, rarely are leagues won or lost based on first and second rounders.

Why is that? Because, despite everyone’s collective effort to identify fail-safe players, at least half of them won’t pan out.

Below is a chart of ESPN’s consensus top-20 players entering the 2015 fantasy season, along with their ultimate end-of-season position rankings. The highlighted names are those who were worth their respective Average Draft Positions (ADPs).

Table 1-PreDraft Rankings v End of Year
Table 1-PreDraft Rankings v End of Year /

Now, consider the names who finished as the top-five players at their respective positions in 2015, along with their pre-draft positions in the ESPN Top 300.

Table 2-End of Year Position Ranks
Table 2-End of Year Position Ranks /

Pretty convincing, isn’t it? Sure, eight of the first 20 names delivered. But look how many early picks turned out to be utter bilge.

Seasons will be won and lost with picks in the middle-to-late rounds — a la QBs Carson Palmer and Blake Bortles, RBs Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin and WRs Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson.

So, do your homework. Have a draft plan and players identified at each stage of the draft (beginning, middle, and end) who you like over their ADP peers.

Don’t just focus on your top few picks.

Next: Let the Draft Come to You