49ers: Where Will the Franchise Be Two Years from Now?

2016 is part of a multiyear rebuilding phase for the San Francisco 49ers, and it may be a while before this team is relevant, let alone good, again. But let’s peer into the future and try to look at how the Niners will look, and be, two years down the road.

If only we could predict the future of the San Francisco 49ers.

Until someone invents a time machine, one can only speculate what the Niners — or any other team, franchise, business, person or anything, for that matter — will be like in 2018. We can offer up some predictions based on what we know and what trends are, but that’s about it.

And so that’s what we’ll do now.

The 2016 49ers aren’t likely going to be very good this season, even if the team brought in an offensive-minded head coach in Chip Kelly.

According to a recent report from ESPN, the Niners aren’t even favored to win any of their 16 games on the upcoming calendar.

49ers fans know this already. And the realistic ones understand this franchise is going through an elongated rebuilding phase which, in all likelihood, will take more than just one offseason. The team is still reeling from the overwhelming number of departures that took place prior to the 2015 season. And that year did almost nothing for the current roster’s development except for raise more questions.

Rare are the teams like the New England Patriots, who seem to stay in the playoff picture for years on end. So the current 49ers downtrodden time is likely just a part of the larger cycle.

Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

There has to be an upswing, right? Where does it start and, more importantly, how long will it take?

Let’s try to answer that.

August 1, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke during training camp at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

The Youth Movement

Whatever the experiment was in 2015 under former head coach Jim Tomsula didn’t work. The offense was atrocious (dead last in the NFL with just 238 points scored), the offensive line was permeable, San Francisco lacked playmakers and the defense was easily worn down over the course of 60 minutes of play.

Suddenly, we find ourselves thinking of the phrase, “The definition of insanity is…”

OK, enough of the colloquialisms. To the Niners’ credit, they didn’t hold stock on a good portion of the current situation. General manager Trent Baalke reinforced the trenches and the secondary with a large portion of his picks in the 2016 NFL Draft.

In came 11 rookie draftees. Out went some older veterans like wide receiver Anquan Boldin and left guard Alex Boone.

And it’s a plan Baalke stresses more than dishing out top dollar in free agency.

“As you know we’ve never been huge believers in the opening market of free-agency,” Baalke told NinerFans.com’s Ryan Sakamoto. “Because let’s face it, no matter who you take on the open-market you’re overpaying them.”

San Francisco is $49,020,398 under the salary cap, per Over the Cap, as of now — most in the NFL.

According to Fox Sports, the 49ers roster has an average age of 23 years old and an average of three-plus years of NFL experience.

That’s pretty low. Young too. Imagine what the number would be without 41-year-old kicker Phil Dawson (go ahead and do the math).

Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) warms up during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

Not all of these youthful players — rookies like defensive end DeForest Buckner, guard Joshua Garnett or wide receiver Aaron Burbridge — will develop into perennial All-Pros. Some may even bust. But the hope is for a few of this young crop to emerge as cornerstones of the franchise for years to come.

Two years from now, there may still be some strong veteran presence. Perhaps guys like wide receiver Torrey Smith and safety Eric Reid provide the leadership. We’ll have to see.

The Coaching Staff

Kelly is an upgrade over Tomsula. And a new coaching staff always provides the proverbial “breath of fresh air” into almost any franchise.

But one might wonder if Kelly ends up burning his players out in a similar fashion to what was perceived his third year with the Philadelphia Eagles. Granted, Kelly had roster control at that point, but the uptempo and physically intensive approach may not be good for the long run.

For what it’s worth, 49ers CEO Jed York stated Kelly would be here for “a long time.”

Maybe this is true. And perhaps it is. Consistency is also a good thing for a franchise going through transition periods.

But what if it isn’t working?

Again, another thing we’ll have to keep on the radar.

The Roster

A young roster means a good chunk of those players, if they come close to meeting expectations, will be around in 2018 and beyond.

And yet there are a number of notable players’ contracts that expire at points in between.

Here are a few guys who will be free agents in 2017:

EDGE Tank Carradine
QB Blaine Gabbert
K Phil Dawson
NT Ian Williams
LB Corey Lemonier
WR Quinton Patton

And for 2018:

LB Ahmad Brooks
S Antoine Bethea
CB Tramaine Brock
S Eric Reid
DB Jimmie Ward
FB/TE Bruce Miller
C Daniel Kilgore
RB Carlos Hyde
WR Bruce Ellington
LB Aaron Lynch

Some of these names will change between now and then. There’s a good chance the Niners re-sign players, preferably before free agency hits, and others — like linebacker Ahmad Brooks or safety Antoine Bethea — may wind up being cap casualties at some point.

But the aforementioned names, and others, mean San Francisco will have some critical decisions to make over the next two seasons.

August 23, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers nose tackle Quinton Dial (92) celebrates during the second quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

There is, of course, the thought Baalke elects to actually dip into free agency to start 2017 — something not done this year. The Niners will have a good chunk of cap space a year from now, and the 2017 free-agent crop is shaping up to be pretty darn good.

Take a look at some of the fringe players listed above. The 49ers have opted to re-sign players they view as key components for their roster. Defensive tackle Quinton Dial’s offseason three-year extension is a perfect example.

But the guys on the bubble don’t stand as good a chance to be around in 2018. So, just like this season, the door remains open for someone else to step in.

The Quarterback Question

The 49ers have an ongoing question mark surrounding the quarterback position entering 2016. Will the starter be Blaine Gabbert or embattled signal-caller Colin Kaepernick?

November 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) looks on next to quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) during the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers defeated the Falcons 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

We don’t know now. So we certainly can’t project the answer for 2018.

At the current moment, Gabbert may have the edge in the competition — as noted in the video below:

So, if this is the case and it becomes true, will Kaepernick be looking for a trade yet again this following offseason?

San Francisco controls Kaepernick through 2021, as illustrated in the contract details below:

But as that cap number increases year to year, the desire for the 49ers to keep him as a backup option decreases. Kaepernick would have to reemerge as a long-term starting option and nothing else.

It’s magnified because Gabbert is a free agent after 2016. OK, so the Niners could re-sign him to a long-term deal at some point. But is he really the answer San Francisco wants under center?

Who knows? Maybe 2018 will be the year in which rookie QB Jeff Driskel takes the helm. Stranger things have happened.

More from Niner Noise

Here’s what you should do — bookmark this article and stash it away in your favorites for a while. When the 49ers hit their 2018 offseason, open it back up and take a look at what changes are made.

Which one of the numerous young Niners are still around? Out of that group, are there any who have made notable splashes?

And which guys are no longer wearing red and gold? Who is the quarterback? How are the players and fan base feeling about Kelly and Co.?

There isn’t any light at the end of the tunnel here. Not yet at least. But one has to give the 49ers some credit. They’re trying.

Now if we can only determine whether or not those efforts will be worthwhile.

Next: Breaking Down 49ers Strengths, Liabilities in 2016

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.

San Francisco 49ers: Where Will the Franchise Be Two Years from Now?

By Peter Panacy | Jun 18, 2016

2016 is part of a multiyear rebuilding phase for the San Francisco 49ers, and it may be a while before this team is relevant, let alone good, again. But let’s peer into the future and try to look at how the Niners will look, and be, two years down the road.

More from Niner Noise