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San Francisco 49ers: Full Predictions for the 2016 NFL Season

By Peter Panacy

Oct 18, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) rushes for a gain against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 18, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) rushes for a gain against the Baltimore Ravens during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /
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November 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (59) and defensive end Arik Armstead (91) celebrate during the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers defeated the Falcons 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
November 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Aaron Lynch (59) and defensive end Arik Armstead (91) celebrate during the first quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers defeated the Falcons 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Predicting 49ers 2016 Defensive Efficiency

If there’s a consequence to an uptempo, fast-paced offense, it’s the notion that team’s defense will be at risk — staying on the field too long and not getting the necessary rest between stands.

It’s an argument made by NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell (h/t Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area), who noted, “if you’re gonna be the defensive coordinator for Chip Kelly, you’re going to rank low.”

So let’s go back to Football Outsiders‘ defensive DVOA for Kelly’s tenure in Philadelphia:

  • 2013 — plus-4.9 percent, No. 23 in NFL
  • 2014 — minus-3.3 percent, No. 10 in NFL
  • 2015 — pllus-3.0 percent, No. 17 in NFL

Interestingly enough, Kelly’s defensive DVOA in 2014 came during the same season in which his offensive DVOA dropped from plus-22.9 to 1.1 percent. Does it mean there was more of a balance? Perhaps.

At any rate, it’s hard to suggest San Francisco will be a shut-down defense this year. Although we should acknowledge general manager Trent Baalke made significant efforts to reinforce this group via the 2016 NFL Draft.

Defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil may have learned from his time with the Cleveland Browns. But it’s hard to state there will be vast improvement here.

San Francisco will give up a lot of yards this season. This group is nowhere close to being elite, and an uptempo offense will put the defense at risk.

The 49ers will allow well over 6,000 all-purpose yards on the season and, likely, fall in the top (or bottom) five, depending how you view it, in this category.

The Niners’ best chance will be in maintaining a strong red-zone prowess — something they did moderately well last season (59.26 percent).

Next: Blaine Gabbert Starts in 2016