San Francisco 49ers: 10 Biggest X-Factors for 2016 Season
By Peter Panacy
No. 1: Quarterback Colin Kaepernick
One might argue an NFL team will go as far as its quarterback will carry it. Unless you’re subscribing to the Denver Broncos’ notion of “defense first” and quarterbacking not being as crucial — it worked for Denver en route to victory in Super Bowl 50, right?
The latter scenario seems to be an exception to the rule, so the 49ers’ own quarterbacking situation has to be of utmost importance.
One might argue the No. 1 X-factor could be either Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert this season — whichever signal-caller earns the starting gig this season. But it’s safe to assume Kaepernick has the far higher ceiling than his counterpart, even if the former’s flaws might be magnified exponentially more than Gabbert’s own.
Still, Kaepernick has to be considered an X-factor because, well, he absolutely is when he’s playing at his highest level. When surrounded with talent, and within a good offensive scheme, Kaepernick was more than capable of making plays.
Is he a perfect fit in head coach Chip Kelly’s offense? Maybe or maybe not. It’s debatable. And are the weapons around him all that great? Perhaps not.
But the intangible traits which catapulted Kap to the doorstep of NFL stardom didn’t just go away overnight. And yet fans can be more than worried the quarterback’s regression will continue regardless of whoever is calling the plays.
Why He’ll Improve
Kelly has a demonstrated knack for getting the most out of quarterbacks. This was on display in Philadelphia with both quarterbacks Nick Foles and Sam Bradford. Neither QB should be considered elite, but it’s a safe argument to suggest both quarterbacks played high above levels seen previously.
Perhaps Kelly is capable of maximizing Kap’s potential and putting the quarterback into the best position to succeed. It’s what good coaches do, and nearly anything would be a step above what was seen from former offensive coordinator Geep Chryst a year ago.
Additionally, the competition between Kaepernick and Gabbert to secure the No. 1 job could also prove beneficial. Kaepernick’s best year, 2012, came at a time when he had former 49ers quarterback Alex Smith looking over his shoulder.
If Kap wins out, he’ll have Gabbert doing the same once again.
Why He’ll Regress
Thirty-one other NFL teams have come up with schemes and game plans to take Kap’s strengths and abilities away form him. The pressure is now on Kap to make his adjustments — the everyday reality of life at such a competitive level.
One could easily argue Kaepernick has, essentially, maxed out. With his peak reached, the rest of the NFL has caught up. Kaepernick is no longer surprising defenses the way he used to in 2012 and 2013.
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The lack of known offensive weapons, combined with a relatively young offensive line, may also prove to be too much for Kaepernick to overcome.
Despite any hopes Kelly can revitalize Kap’s career, it’s clear the 49ers don’t have an answer under center.
Next: 5 Reasons Why the 49ers Will be Better than You Think in 2016
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.