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2016 NFL Draft: Worst-Case Scenarios for 49ers

By Bryan Knowles

Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Baalke has traded down in two of the last three first rounds. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Baalke has traded down in two of the last three first rounds. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

Trading Too Far Down

So, if trading up is a worst-case scenario, surely the team should go the other way, right?  They’ve got plenty of holes, so trading down might be the best strategy, right?

Not necessarily. It may seem obvious, but it’s important to remember better players are generally drafted earlier in the draft. The average player drafted with the 49ers’ seventh-overall pick ends up being a Byron Leftwich or a Michael Huff; solid starters but not Pro Bowlers. As you slide down towards the back half of the first round, you start getting closer to the Rashard Mendenhalls or Fabian Washingtons of the world.

Trading back and getting more versatility and flexibility with more picks is a useful thing to do overall, but eventually, a team has to use those picks on acquiring actual players. The 49ers already have 12 picks in this year’s draft, with seven of those possibly tradable. If anything, the 49ers would be better served trying to trade up and get three picks in the first two rounds or so—they need some top talent to help spark the next iteration of a successful 49ers squad.

Yes, the 49ers could trade down and down and down and into next year, but there’s only so much “wait ‘till next year” a fanbase can possibly take. The 49ers traded down in the first round in 2015 and 2013; after several years of underperforming drafts, it may well be time for the 49ers to try trading up and earning more talent. Moving up from the seventh pick is probably not worth the price the team would have to pay, but they should in general be looking to package their picks and make small moves up the board, rather than trading back yet again.

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