Niner Noise
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2016 NFL Draft: Worst-Case Scenarios for 49ers

By Bryan Knowles

Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 24, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke speaks to the media during the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /
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Washington still regrets giving up a king’s ransom to trade up for Robert Griffin. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Washington still regrets giving up a king’s ransom to trade up for Robert Griffin. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

Trading Too Far Up

Jason Cole of Bleacher Report reported that the 49ers had brief discussions with the Tennessee Titans about trading up to the number one pick in this year’s draft. They also have been frequently rumored as a team that might possibly trade back into the back half of round one if they miss out on both of the top two quarterbacks.

Trading up that high very rarely works out, and is a huge gamble for usually not much reward.  According to the classic trade value chart, moving from the seventh pick to the first would require an additional 1,500 points of draft value. The 49ers don’t actually have that much tradable value in this year’s entire draft, so you’d be talking about some insane package to get up there—the first- and second-round picks in 2016 and 2017 and an extra pick this year, for example. When Washington traded up from the sixth pick to the second pick in 2012 to draft Robert Griffin, it cost them three first-rounders and a second-rounder. It’s an insane price tag to jump higher up in the draft.

If the team was absolutely 100 percent certain that Jared Goff or Carson Wentz would become the next Joe Montana, or that Laremy Tunsil could be a Harris Barton-esque fixture on the offensive line, than that price is a perfectly logical one to pay. However, there’s just too much uncertainty when it comes to the draft to make that risk worthwhile. For the sake of argument, let’s say the 49ers had the top pick in each of the last ten drafts, with their current offensive needs. Who might they have taken, if they followed the advice of the scouting and draft predictions of the time?

  • 2006: Matt Leinart, QB, USC—out of the league since 2012 after 18 career starts.
  • 2007: JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU—the biggest bust in draft history.
  • 2008: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College—a three-time Pro Bowler and a perfectly fine pick.
  • 2009: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia—puts up great raw stats and made the Pro Bowl in 2014.
  • 2010: Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma—maybe one year he’ll stay healthy
  • 2011: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri—was rated higher than Cam Newton on ESPN’s board.
  • 2012: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford—still a great pick, even if last year went terribly for him.
  • 2013: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan—yet to develop into a great tackle, though he’s been solid.
  • 2014: Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson—has looked sharp at points, though Odell Beckham and Mike Evans have outperformed him to this point.
  • 2015: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State—a Pro Bowl berth as a rookie is a good start.

That’s maybe four out of ten picks the team would be happy with. That’s not nearly a high enough success rate to justify giving up so much draft capital to move; and, to be frank, this draft is less talented at the top than either of the last two years, and might be the least impressive draft class in recent memory. Putting all of the franchise’s eggs in one basket isn’t a sound strategy. Yes, someone who gets drafted this month will end up in the Hall of Fame, but since we can’t know who that will be, using so much effort to move up a slot is just not worth it.

Next: Trade Down!