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2016 Offseason: 5 Best-Case Scenarios for the San Francisco 49ers

By Peter Panacy

What might Chip Kelly and Trent Baalke cook up in free agency? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
What might Chip Kelly and Trent Baalke cook up in free agency? Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Brandon Scherff (Iowa) poses for a photo with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected as the number fifth overall pick to the Washington Redskins in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Brandon Scherff (Iowa) poses for a photo with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected as the number fifth overall pick to the Washington Redskins in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports /

Striking Gold in the 2016 NFL Draft

General manager Trent Baalke recently noted, via David Fucillo of Niners Nation, teams are built through the draft and supplemented via free agency. He stated:

"Well, the one thing that I’m convinced of is you can’t buy championships. You earn championships and there’s a process to it. You build through the draft. You supplement your roster with free agency. You take care of your own guys because that creates ownership on their part."

Baalke is right in this sense. And he’ll have plenty of picks at his disposal.

Per Fucillo, the Niners will be armed with as many as 12 picks in advance of the draft — four compensatory. Baalke has a track record of trading around during the draft, so this number gives him the option of some draft-day moves or, at least, staying put and adding 12 players to the Niners roster.

So what would be a good return on the 2016 49ers draft class? And which player should go to San Francisco at No. 7 overall?

Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass in the first half against the Air Force Falcons at Amon G. Carter Stadium. California won 55-36. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 29, 2015; Fort Worth, TX, USA; California Golden Bears quarterback Jared Goff (16) throws a pass in the first half against the Air Force Falcons at Amon G. Carter Stadium. California won 55-36. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /

CBS Sports’ Rob Rang suggests it will be Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, while fellow CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler, as well as Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, tout Cal quarterback Jared Goff.

Treadwell would be an impact receiver around which the 49ers could mold their aerial attack if, and when, vetearn wideout Anquan Boldin departs.

But Goff could end up being the long-term solution under center, which would put to rest any concerns over incumbent quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert.

Yet any draftee would have to provide an impact regardless of position or need. A quick-take assumption might suggest a 40 percent success rate on prospects meeting an expectation after being drafted.

Given the 49ers’ circumstances, Baalke would need a return on investment much higher than that — perhaps 50 percent or better.

So if half of San Francisco’s 2016 draft class winds up meeting or exceeding expectations, that would be a good return and would easily meet the criteria for a best-case scenario.

Next: Fixing the Quarterback Situation