49ers: Ranking the 2016 Head Coaching Vacancies

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Look to the NFC East to find the most enticing coaching spots. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Final Verdict

So, do the 49ers have the worst job available, as Gregg Rosenthal and Will Brinson indicated? I disagree.

In seventh and last place, I have to put the Cleveland Browns. It’s an aging roster that needs to be torn down and rebuilt from the ground up. Their front office is an intriguing experiment, as they’ve hired a baseball guy, Paul DePodesta, to help reshape the franchise—but if I’m a head coach, I’m not sure I want to pin my reputation on such an experiment if I have other options. The division offers the toughest competition out there—and you pretty much have to use your top pick on a quarterback, with no other reasonable option on the roster. In addition, owner Jimmy Haslam will be on his fourth head coach since taking over the team in 2012. That doesn’t bode well for long-term job security. Thanks, but no thanks.

In fifth and sixth, respectively, I’d take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans, though that comes with a bit of an asterisk. They’re a year ahead on their rebuilding projects compared to the 49ers, which is a double-edged sword. They already have their quarterbacks of the future in place, which is good, but it’s not someone the new head coach got to choose. If you’re already a fan of Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, that would bump these teams up over the 49ers, but you have to be a fan of the moves the previous regimes made in order to rank them that highly. Add in the fact that both teams just fired a head coach in year one of their new quarterback’s tenure, and you have to wonder about long-term security, as well. I like Winston a bit better than Mariota at this point, which is why I have Tampa Bay just ahead of Tennessee. Chip Kelly would likely have Mariota ahead of Winston, and thus would put the Titans ahead of both Tampa Bay and San Francisco. It’s all relative.

That leaves the San Francisco 49ers in fourth place—higher than most other online rankings have them. The 49ers have more than $50 million of cap space, possibly as many as 12 draft picks if all of Over the Cap’s projected compensatory picks pan out, and some talent already on the roster. It seems undeniable that the situation is better than the one in Cleveland, and it allows a head coach more control over the situation than the rebuilding efforts in Tampa Bay or Tennessee. The inferior quarterback situation compared to Mariota or Winston is definitely a negative indicator, but the 49ers are a prime situation for a new coach to put their fingerprint on the team for years to come, for good or ill.

This gives a head coach more options. If you take over the Buccaneers or Titans job, you’re sort of stuck following the blueprints that Lovie Smith or Ken Whisenhunt laid out; going in a new direction undermines any progress that was made this last year. With the 49ers, a coach can help set the direction from the start. Is Colin Kaepernick the quarterback, or a high draft choice? Do you keep Ahmad Brooks as a veteran linebacker, or cut him and draft a pass rusher highly? How many early picks do you use on the offensive line? The 49ers have more question marks, which is bad, but it does allow a coach more control over how to fix the team. A coach can live or die by their own merits, not based on what the previous coach left them with.

Obviously, the 49ers’ situation drops more if the new head coach has issues dealing with Trent Baalke, and it’s possible I’m underrating the effect this year’s front office struggles will have on the team’s reputation among head coaching candidates. I’m just of the mind that, if I have to take over a rebuilding team, I want to get in on the ground floor, rather than take over a project half-completed by a previous, fired regime.

Of course, given the choice, I’d rather not have a rebuilding team at all. That’s why the Miami Dolphins come in third—a promising, if not significantly above-average quarterback in Ryan Tannehill with a decently talented roster around him is something that can be competitive in 2016. They can’t rank any higher, though, because of their horrible salary cap situation—some talent may have to go in order just to sign their draft picks in 2016.

I have the New York Giants in second place, because having a very good quarterback like Eli Manning means a lot. They also have a patient ownership, giving a new head coach time to get the Giants back to their winning ways. There are some big decisions to be made in free agency, and it’s all taking place in the biggest media market in the league, but the team has the flexibility to make moves and be competitive immediately in a weak division.

Still, if I’m a head coaching candidate, I’m taking the best roster I can find and then trying to add a quarterback to it, which means I’m coaching the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re only one year removed from back-to-back 10-6 seasons, and they were a not-horrible 7-9 this year. They’ve got a number of intriguing assets already on the roster, though many of them were taken specifically to fit Chip Kelly’s offense. If I had to make a prediction, I’d say they were the next of these seven teams to make a playoff appearance. That makes them the most enticing job on the market.

Next: Who Remains a Head Coaching Candidate?

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Bryan Knowles is pleased to be here at Niner Noise! He’s looking forward to rambling on for far too many words about things. For more abbreviated takes, follow him @BryKno on Twitter.

San Francisco 49ers: Ranking the 2016 Head Coaching Vacancies

By Bryan Knowles | Jan 7, 2016

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