‘To Try or Tank’: The 49ers and Implications for the 2017 NFL Draft
By Peter Panacy
Should the San Francisco 49ers try to “tank” over their remaining four games of the season? Or should the Niners try to win games down the stretch, knowing it will impact their spot in the 2017 NFL Draft?
To “tank or not to tank.” That is the inevitable question for the 1-11 San Francisco 49ers.
If you’re a fan, chances are you think it’s best for the Niners to cough up losses in each one of their remaining four games this season. Why? Well, it’s simple. It would guarantee the franchise a top-two pick in the upcoming 2017 NFL Draft.
Sounds simple, doesn’t it — lose out to get a better draft pick. And with so many needs across the board, the 49ers can either draft high or trade back and accrue additional much-needed picks.
And ones with a far higher value.
But it’s not that simple. Remember the “Scoff for Goff” campaign a year ago? The Niners came in seventh in last year’s draft, and former Cal QB Jared Goff went No. 1 overall to the Los Angeles Rams.
The past is the past. Yet it’s worth evaluating both sides of this question.
That’s what we’ll do — look at the argument for, and against, trying to tank over the rest of the season.
Pro Argument of the 49ers Tanking
The higher the draft pick, the better the prospect. It’s easy.
Top-five prospects have far more value than a pick between Nos. 6 and 10. And top-10 picks are better than those from 11 and above. At least according to scouting reports.
With the Niners’ season in the gutter, this franchise has nothing to gain by winning any games down the stretch. Any win is fools gold. San Francisco is bad and everyone knows it.
The 49ers are desperate for an impact player, and a top-two pick could easily land them one. Many fingers would point to Texas A&M edge rusher Myles Garrett, who is viewed by many draft scouts as the No. 1 prospect in this year’s draft.
He’s just one example.
Even if the Niners couldn’t — or didn’t want to — land Garrett, a top-two pick would have incredible value in trade-down scenarios.
Just look at this draft-pick-value trade chart from Pro Football Talk. The assigned values fall off dramatically after the first two picks, and pick No. 7 holds half the overall value as the No. 1 overall.
San Francisco could use an entire first round to restock its roster. That won’t happen, of course, but a trade-down would be the next best thing.
Con Argument of the 49ers Tanking
How? Exactly how do the Niners purposely lose?
We took a look at this question earlier. First, who asks that question? The front office? General manager Trent Baalke? Who?
Second, and more importantly, any player willing to tank isn’t anyone worth keeping around in the first place. Remember, the NFL is a league made up players who are, essentially, independent contractors.
They know other teams’ scouts and GMs are watching. They also know the average length of an NFL career is about 3.3 years, according to Statista.com.
So do you honestly think any player would be willing to put his career on the line just to miss a tackle, run a wrong route or be out of position on any given play? It’s ludicrous.
And what of the coaches? Head coach Chip Kelly could be on the hot seat after failing to lead his team to anything better than a 1-11 season so far. Maybe he’s safe, for now, but what about members of his staff? They’re probably on the hot seat as well.
Intentionally trying to lose doesn’t do them any favors either.
The Uncertainty of the NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is anything but an exact science. While both the NBA and NHL have draft lotteries, to discourage teams from tanking to secure a top pick, pro football hasn’t ever felt the need to do so.
There are just as many first-round and No. 1 overall busts as there are must-have players. Just ask the Ryan Leafs and JaMarcus Russells of the world.
Putting it bluntly, having the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick doesn’t guarantee a team a Pro Bowl-caliber or All-Pro-type player. It truly is a craps-shoot.
As Chris Chase of USA Today’s For the Win wrote:
"For bad teams, it’s better to evaluate secondary talent in Weeks 16 and 17 to see which below-the-line players should stick around than it is to tank all because you might move from No. 8 to No. 5 in the draft, a jump which statistically does very little for a team’s draft success rate."
Based on this, the Niners don’t benefit much at all from tanking.
Except for the trade-down theory.
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This might be where it makes the most sense. Remember, San Francisco isn’t in need of just one or two impact players. The 49ers need a plethora of them. And being able to trade down from either Nos. 1 or 2 to later in Round 1, securing extra picks along the way, would dramatically help this team rebuild.
But, of course, this prompts the “how” question once more.
Who knows how San Francisco answers this? Maybe the Niners choose not to altogether.
Next: Why the 49ers Should Trade Down in Round 1 of the NFL Draft
One thing is for certain — the 49ers will still have a very high pick next year.