Biggest winners, losers from 49ers trade of Trey Lance to Cowboys

The aftermath of the 49ers' trade of Trey Lance to the Cowboys will linger for a long time, but there are some clear winners and losers already.

There are a number of yet-to-be-determined X-factors that'll ultimately decide how the San Francisco 49ers' attempt to turn Trey Lance into a franchise quarterback, only to fail at that and trade him away to the Dallas Cowboys, will be looked back upon.

For now, though, that 2021 trade-up to No. 3 overall in the NFL Draft to select Lance has to go down as one of, if not the worst trades in franchise history. Perhaps one of the worst draft trades in the modern football era.

And how the Niners handled Lance, from trying to sprinkle him in on various packages his rookie year (a process that was halted after only a few short weeks) to not being patient enough in developing the awfully raw prospect, will also go down as a massive stain on the current regime of head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.

But are they ultimately losers for it?

Well, yes. Yes, they are. And they kick off Niner Noise's list of post-Lance trade winners and losers.

Loser: 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan, general manager John Lynch

It's a good thing both Lynch and Shanahan have brought a winning pedigree to a San Francisco squad that was the laughingtstock of the league before the two men arrived in 2017. Making it to three NFC Championship games in four years, winning one of them, certainly helps save face for both individuals.

That said, neither looks good in the wake of the Lance debacle, and the failure will prompt reactions like this for years to come:

Hyperbole? Perhaps. But the bigger point is the 49ers are now going to be in those conversations for a very long time, perhaps decades.

Lynch, the face of the trade-up to No. 3 overall that cost the Niners two additional first-round draft picks, plus a third-rounder, and Shanahan for not properly developing Lance. Or, at the very least, not being patient with him after the lofty investment.

Thank goodness for quarterback Brock Purdy, though, right? He might have effectively guaranteed both Shanahan and Lynch their jobs moving forward.

Winner: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy, who came from being the final pick of the 2021 draft and turned into an almost overnight sensation as San Francisco's third starter late last year and into the playoffs, no longer has to worry about another challenging him for the starting job anytime soon.

Despite Trey Lance being the high-profile draft pick, it was clear all offseason the 49ers were fully invested in Purdy as their starter. John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan effectively both endorsed Purdy as the starter at multiple points despite the fact the quarterback was coming off offseason elbow surgery.

Lance was merely competing with fellow former third-overall draftee, Sam Darnold, for the No. 2 quarterback spot, a competition he ultimately lost and one that prompted the subsequent trade to the Cowboys.

That said, Purdy remains one of those X-factors that'll help determine the severity of the Lance debacle.

If Purdy winds up being the "real deal," as Shanahan has said, the failed Lance experiment stings a lot less.

But if Purdy looks more like a final NFL Draft pick out of Round 7, meaning last year was more of an anomaly than anything else, punting on Lance will be significantly more disastrous than it already is.

Loser: 49ers wide receiver Danny Gray

The Niners used a 2022 third-round draft pick on former SMU wide receiver Danny Gray, hoping his breakneck speed would provide the deep threat needed to help fully open up San Francisco's offense.

With Trey Lance under center, of course. After all, he was the lone quarterback on the 49ers roster who had the arm strength to hit Gray in stride on a go route down the field.

There were other factors at play, yes. But when Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2 last year, Gray's stock value plummeted and he finished his rookie campaign with just one catch for 10 yards on seven targets.

Gray is dealing with an injury to start his 2023 season, although multiple reports said he made exceptional strides from year one to improve his stock value.

But that stock was intended to be as one of Lance's preferred weapons, and that will no longer be the case.

At least not with the Niners.

Winner: 49ers quarterback Brandon Allen

Go through nearly every offseason report on San Francisco's quarterback competition, and veteran Brandon Allen is essentially an afterthought in each of them.

Perhaps this analysis from Sports Illustrated's Grant Cohn hits best when he was comparing Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold, and finally, Allen:

"BRANDON ALLEN
It doesn't matter what he did."

Well, it matters now.

Allen went from a player who'd likely end up on the 49ers practice squad, making approximately $11,500 per week, to being on the active roster and earning up to $1.233 million this season, according to Over the Cap.

That's a winning difference, even if he's only a third-string option behind Purdy and Darnold.

Loser: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott

The winners and losers from the Trey Lance trade don't just include those who don the red and gold.

No, some Cowboys players feel the effect, too, including Dallas' own franchise quarterback, Dak Prescott, who is now going to experience even more comments like this in the wake of the transaction with San Francisco:

As was the case with now-Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo when Lance was drafted in 2021, Prescott faces significantly more pressure upon him now that a 23-year-old signal-caller is looking at taking his job, eventually.

Prescott, 30 years old and the owner of a league-high 15 thrown interceptions last year, is put on notice in the wake of the Lance trade.

Dallas didn't give up much for Lance, true. But the move wasn't to merely guard against injury at the position either.

No, the Cowboys will entertain the idea of Lance eventually replacing Prescott.

Winner: Cowboys quarterback Trey Lance

Trey Lance could theoretically fall into both winner and loser categories.

On the losing side, his situation in Dallas isn't exactly better than the one he departed in San Francisco. While not official, ESPN's quarterbacking depth chart for the Cowboys lists Lance at No. 3 behind Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush, and that's precisely where he would have been with the 49ers but amid an offensive system that remains unchanged from his rookie 2021 season.

Former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, meanwhile, is off to the Los Angeles Chargers. Brian Schottenheimer is now calling plays under head coach Mike McCarthy, whose footing with Dallas is on significantly shakier ground than Kyle Shanahan with the Niners.

That said, San Francisco mismanaged Lance and his entire situation for quite some time now, and it was clearly in everyone's best interest to cut bait and move on.

Lance wins because he gets a fresh start somewhere else, and he's not going to be dealing with the same sort of awkward situations that accompanied him for more than two years since being drafted in 2021.

If Lance pans out nicely with the Cowboys, the 49ers will look worse for it. If he doesn't, it's still a loss for the Niners but one that's better absorbed.

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