This stat reveals why 49ers will beat Chiefs in Super Bowl 58

The 49ers might be the betting favorite, but the public are skeptical that the team can stop the Chiefs from establishing a dynasty. This key stat explains why they can.

NFC Championship - Detroit Lions v San Francisco 49ers
NFC Championship - Detroit Lions v San Francisco 49ers / Michael Zagaris/GettyImages
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What do the 49ers need to focus on to win their sixth Lombardi trophy? This one stat could be the key to derailing the Chiefs dynasty that awaits them.

With under a week to go until the Super Bowls, the chips are well and truly pushed into the middle of the table in Las Vegas as the San Francisco 49ers look to win their sixth Lombardi trophy and their first in nearly three decades.

Standing in their way is the modern-day dynasty in the Kansas City Chiefs, looking to win their third Super Bowl in five years, including a second win over San Francisco.

Read More: So, they meet again? 49ers vs. Chiefs for Super Bowl 58


The Niners will have revenge on their mind as they look to take their turn hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, so attention turns to what can be done to exploit any deficiencies against KC.

Previous Chiefs teams wouldn't be very good on defense while being the best offensive team in the NFL. This has been relatively different this season, as Kansas City's offense has been somewhat stagnant (including being scoreless in the second half of the AFC Championship against the Baltimore Ravens) and possessing an excellent defense.

So this would lead one to suspect somewhat that the offense would be exploitable, but the opposite may instead be true as the Chiefs possess one key defensive flaw that happens to coincide with what the 49ers do best.

Put simply, the Chiefs suck at defending the run. Like 27th in DVOA suck. That's sixth worst in the league.

At a metric that so happens to be against one of the best teams in the league at rushing the ball (the 49ers sit at No. 2 in rush offense DVOA). At a metric where the other team happens to have Christian McCaffrey, the odds on favorite to be Offensive Player of the Year and will earn MVP votes and might be winning the MVP if anyone but a quarterback was allowed to.

At the risk of simplifying what would no doubt be a much more complicated process, the 49ers taking advantage of the mismatch in the run game would be the perfect formula. Not only can they exploit the one weakness on the Chiefs defense, but they can also control the clock and keep it out of the hands of the very handy quarterback the Chiefs happen to have.

Of course, no doubt head coach Kyle Shanahan will be well aware of this disparity. As long as he's able to exploit it, it could be the leg up that allows the 49ers to join the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers as the only NFL teams to win the Super Bowl six times.

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