4 reasons why 49ers beat Lions in NFC Championship (and 2 reasons why they don't)

The San Francisco 49ers face the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship with a spot in the Super Bowl on the line, here's why they win the game (and two reasons why they won't).

Here we are. With a spot in the Super Bowl on the line, the San Francisco 49ers again find themselves in the NFC Championship tantalizingly close to Super Bowl glory.

This is the fourth time in five years that the Niners have made it to this point, and the scars of last year are still fresh in the minds of players and fans, as the team was pretty much rendered helpless with no quarterback at the wrong end of a rout against the Philadelphia Eagles.

This year is a bit different, however. Unlike last year with a road game, it's now a home contest for San Francisco. Also, unlike the Eagles who are a "with us or against us" fanbase, the 49ers will be facing the sentimental favorites in the Detroit Lions who have shaken off decades of futility to be one of the NFC elite.

It's been a long time between playoff road wins for the Lions, with the last time being in 1957 (coincidentally against the San Francisco 49ers).

Read More: This betting trend points to Jared Goff struggling vs. 49ers in NFC Championship


Apologies to all of those wanting the romance of a Lions victory, but our sympathies are well and truly muted for a week.

The 49ers were rusty in their 24-21 win over the Green Bay Packers last week, so the team will be looking for a more complete performance in the NFC Championship.

But where do they have the edge to give them the win, and where are the areas that could prevent another 49ers victory?

Let's take a look.

Why the 49ers win: Playoff experience

The 49ers are no strangers to this part of the NFL playoffs. As mentioned, this is the fourth time in five years that San Francisco has made it this far in the playoffs.

The Lions, as you might expect, have not made it this far in a very long time. It was the 1991 season, and for those who are keeping track, that's well over 30 years.

The Lions have a very well-constructed roster, thanks to frequently strong drafting, but their team is much less experienced when it comes to the playoffs.

Put simply, it's a different ballgame that they're not experienced in.

Combined with this, and the rabid home crowd the Niners will enjoy on Sunday, this is a big psychological edge for San Francisco over Detroit. The 49ers know what it's like to be here, most of the Lions do not.

Of course, that's not in of itself going to put the Niners into the Super Bowl, but don't underestimate the edge in a team that knows what it takes to play in this game.

Why the 49ers win: Jared Goff struggles against San Francisco

Nothing should be underestimated about Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who proved he didn't need the mentoring of Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay to be successful. He's had an excellent year for Detroit, pure and simple.

Goff has had seasons of high play before, of course, and he's no stranger to the 49ers. This gives us some history to bounce back, too, a history that isn't too flattering to the Lions quarterback:

Goff is 0-5 in his last five starts against San Francisco, and 3-6 overall. He's been rattled a lot by the 49ers in previous matchups, and head coach Kyle Shanahan is well aware of how to game plan against him.

Of course, that's not to say that Goff should be taken lightly. He has his own enviable array of weapons, and he's more than talented enough to use them.

So what's the secret?

In short, putting him under pressure. The Lions have an excellent offensive line, but the Niners do have a pass rush capable of extreme pressure.

At the end of the day, Shanahan has managed to have Goff's number lately. Let's hope that continues on Sunday night.

But the 49ers have some worries, too. Let's look at a reason that they might fall short on Sunday night.

Why the 49ers won't win: Poor run defense might cost them

It's no secret that as of late, the 49ers have had some problems when it comes to run defense. Packers running back Aaron Jones gashed them open and threatened to win the game almost by himself, and it only gets tougher from here.

The Lions possess a tough tandem of David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Combined, the two have gone for 1,960 yards and 23 touchdowns for the season as Detroit has had an admirable 49ers-esque commitment to running the ball and establishing the ground game.

The Niners are middle of the pack, ranked 15th in run defense DVOA, with the low yardage against them in part chalked up to being in front of most teams and making them pass more. But against a team that loves to run the ball early and often, San Francisco will have to be wary.

Run defense is the name of the game, and if the 49ers don't game plan meticulously for it, then the Lions may literally run away with this contest.

Why the 49ers win: Big matchup advantage when it comes to passing offense

The 49ers have their weakness when it comes to run defense. With the Lions, however, it's the opposite side of the coin, with their passing defense being held to the microscope in this game.

Similar to San Francisco, the part of the Lions defense that comes under the most scrutiny is the secondary. They've been susceptible to passing attacks, which the Niners are primed to target with their array of offensive weapons.

The run defense for Detroit is exceptional, ranked atop the entire NFL. With this in mind, combined with the game-breaking ability of running back Christian McCaffrey, this creates an interesting dynamic for how both the 49ers and Lions fare:

There have been certain elements of the media that have used the relatively poor performance of quarterback Brock Purdy as "proof" that he's not the quarterback to lead San Francisco to glory not seen in nearly three decades, but he has a good chance to have a rebound performance this week even if wide receiver Deebo Samuel doesn't play.

If Deebo does play and all hands are on deck, then the 49ers should be able to exploit the Lions and their deficiencies in pass defense.

Why the 49ers won't win: Detroit's run defense can stifle Christian McCaffrey

We talked before about how the 49ers have to look out for its shaky run defense, and they have another concern when it comes to the running side of things with the Lions and their top-ranked run defense.

Christian McCaffrey has been the crown jewel of the Niners' overpowering offense, and he was the focal point in the wet against the Packers with 17 carries for 98 yards and two touchdowns, along with seven receptions for 30 yards. He was both the battering ram and the safety valve.

In honesty, it was a little surprising that McCaffrey wasn't given the ball more in the rushing game, given the Packers struggle in that area. It's a matchup that'll be much tougher against Detroit.

Not many teams can clamp down on McCaffrey, but the Lions could very well be one of those teams with their exceptional front seven. Kyle Shanahan will find it much harder to feature McCaffrey as he did against the Packers.

If the 49ers aren't able to unleash McCaffrey, then the offense tends to sputter a lot more. While the relatively poorer passing defense of the Lions could alleviate this, the Niners would much rather utilize clock control as well by keeping it on the ground.

Why the 49ers win: Niners' red-zone offense is elite, Lions red-zone defense is not

The 49ers didn't have the best offensive performances against the Packers, and their inability to get down the field for most of the game meant they only made the red zone once during the game.

Mind you, it was for the game-winning touchdown. So at least there's that.

The Niners have been the best in the league when it comes to red-zone offense, though, and coming away with seven points instead of three. This is promising when you consider the Lions are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to their red-zone defense.

Offensive efficiency will be critical for San Francisco, given the Lions possess their own elite scoring unit, so it's critical that the 49ers take advantage of the red-zone mismatch and up the score as much as they can, given they can never be sure how many opportunities they have.

And if the 49ers can exploit the Lions and their problems in the red zone, then they could be one step closer to their sixth Super Bowl victory.