It was a good weekend for the San Francisco 49ers, as they won their fifth straight game (for the second time this season) by defeating the Seattle Seahawks 28-16 on Sunday and then clinched the NFL's first playoff berth by way of the Green Bay Packers falling to the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.
There's still work to do to wrap up another NFC West title, but the 49ers are in good shape to ensure that the lowest seed they can earn heading into NFC playoffs is number three, although they currently hold the top seed – and all the all-important first-round bye – heading into Week 15.
With four games left to go before the season's end, the 49ers appear to have reheated up at the right time, and while there are some tough tests left on the schedule, there's no reason to believe that the Niners can't storm into the playoffs in the same way they did last season: riding a massive win streak.
The 49ers' offense is among the best in the league, not only in terms of raw output (third in scoring, second in yards, etc), but more in-depth analytics such as DVoA have them ranked at or near the top of the NFL in most categories (first overall, first on offense, and fourth on defense).
And ever more advanced data such as EPA per play have the 49ers comfortably as the NFL's top team, top offense (by a rather wide margin), and sixth-best defense.
All that to say, the 2023 49ers are an excellent team and pinning a "Super Bowl or bust" moniker on them is more than rationale.
Keeping all that in mind, though, let's take a look at how the final four games of the regular season stack up and how the outcomes of those games could turn out.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 17 at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 ET/1:05 PT
These two teams already faced each other back in Week 4 in Santa Clara, a game the Cardinals kept pretty close through the third quarter until the 49ers emphatically closed it out via two fourth quarter touchdown runs to wrap up a 19-point victory.
That matchup featured now-Vikings quarterback Josh Dobbs as the signal-caller for Arizona, and although the team has fared better since the return of Kyler Murray under center, the change at quarterback did not improve their defense.
Arizona has given up 331 points through 13 games, a 25.5 per game average that's 30th in the NFL, while also giving up a lot of yards (23rd), particularly on the ground where they are 30th in total yards allowed and 25th in yards per attempt.
And while they've been better offensively since Murray's return, their highwater mark is just 25 points scored in his four games. They do run the ball pretty efficiently (their 4.7 yards per rush is third in the league), but even that output has fluctuated throughout the season.
Sure, this is a division game and the Cardinals have nothing to lose at this point in the campaign, but the 49ers are more the more talented team and should win this one handily and clinch their second straight NFC West division title.
Outcome: 49ers win by double digits
Record: 11-3
Week 16: Monday, Dec. 25 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
Yet another holiday game for the 49ers, having dispatched of the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving, the Baltimore Ravens come to Levi's Stadium for the Niners' final prime time regular season game of 2023.
In what could be a reasonable Super Bowl preview, the Ravens have quietly been one of the NFL's best teams and head into Week 15 as the AFC's top seed.
Baltimore is the NFL's fourth best scoring offense (27.8 ppg) and second best scoring defense (allowing just 16.8 ppg), while allowing the second fewest yards, fewest touchdowns, and the lowest yards per attempted allowed in the league.
In other words: this is a really good team, even if their offense is much better when running the ball than passing. Per the EPA metric, they have the NFL's highest rushing success rate at 46.3%, while they are tenth in EPA per dropback at 47.6%.
This is far and away the 49ers' toughest remaining test and it comes during a stretch when they can ill afford to lose another game given the easier path that the Philadelphia Eagles have for the remainder of the season.
The biggest problem is that the areas where Baltimore is particularly adept (rushing offense and stopping the pass) are the very same that are either the struggle for the 49ers (stopping the run on defense) or have driven the offense in terms of efficiency (Brock Purdy and the passing game).
This one is shaping up to be one of the better contests of 2023 and it's one both teams will need to say ahead in their respective conference races.
Still, I don't like the matchup for the 49ers, and unless the defense is able to use a similar game plan that it utilized in shutting down Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts to slow down Ravens' signal-caller Lamar Jackson, it could be a long and frustrating Christmas night.
Outcome: 49ers lose a holiday heartbreaker, but it's close
Record: 11-4
Bonus: I think the Eagles are broken and lose their Week 15 game in Seattle so all is okay!
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 31 at Washington Commanders, 1:00 PM ET/10:00 AM PT
There is probably a version of this game that you could consider a trap.
The 49ers are flying out to the East coast on a short week after a heartbreaking loss to one of the NFL's best and most physical teams to play against a Commanders team that is not very good and could be in the midst of a six game losing streak, depending on how their trips to Los Angeles to play the Rams in Week 15 and New York to play the Jets in Week 16 turn out.
But given the need for the 49ers to win their final two games to keep hold of the NFC's top seed and just how awful the Commanders have been at times this season (their four wins are against the Cardinals and Broncos to open the season, followed by the Falcons in Week 6 and the Patriots in Week 9), I think the 49ers will avoid the trap altogether.
Washington's defense wasn't very good before trading away EDGE rushers Montez Sweat (to the Bears) and Chase Young prior to the trade deadline (they allowed 28.5 ppg before the trades), but it's gotten worse since (33.4 ppg in Weeks 9-13).
The offense isn't much better, although the run the ball fairly efficiently when they actually get the chance to, but they lead the league passing attempts but not yards, which tells you everything you need to know.
The early body clock time on a short week may impact the 49ers a bit and so, like they did in Philadelphia, there's a chance they get off to a slow start, but look for the Niners to eventually blow the doors off the Commanders on the road.
Outcome: A big win for the 49ers
Record: 12-4
Week 18: Saturday, Jan. 6 OR Sunday, Jan. 7 vs Los Angeles Rams, TBD
The season's final game may matter quite a bit for the 49ers, especially if the Eagles and/or Cowboys continue to keep pace with their NFC West counterpart.
The Rams could very well still be in the playoff race, too, as their run prior to this finale (home for Washington and New Orleans, away for the Giants) could have them on a win streak and sitting at 9-7 heading into the final weekend.
Los Angeles is a better team than their 6-7 record coming into Week 15 might indicate and health has been a major factor as key players like quarterback Matthew Stafford, wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and running back Kyren Williams have all missed time due to injury.
Still, this is a matchup that the 49ers have owned of late, winning nine straight regular season contests against their division rivals, including an all-important Week 18 victory at SoFi Stadium that closed out the 2021 season and propelled the Niners into the playoffs.
The final score of the Week 2 matchup between these two teams was closer than the game because the Rams kicked a ridiculous last-second field goal to cut the score to 30-23, but it was also one that Kupp missed while rookie wideout Puka Nacua pulled down 15 catches on 20 targets for 147 yards. Having both players will present a challenge for the 49ers.
But the Rams defense has been very up and down in 2023, which is likely where this matchup tilts in favor of the home team. It'll be a battle, as these games often are, but the 49ers should be able to pull this one out and secure the NFC's number one seed and a first round bye.